KUALA LUMPUR – Twin by-elections in Johor on Sept 9 will test whether surprise gains by Perikatan Nasional (PN) in recent state polls – dubbed the “green wave” – will finally hit Malaysia’s southern shores, where the opposition pact has so far failed to make headway.
Nominations for the parliamentary seat in Pulai at the border with Singapore, and the state ward of Simpang Jeram near Muar town, will be held on Saturday. The seats had been held by Domestic Trade and Cost of Living Minister Salahuddin Ayub and were left vacant after he died due to a brain haemorrhage on July 23.
PN, led by former premier Muhyiddin Yassin, won a third of Parliament’s 222 seats in November’s General Election despite being billed as “no-hopers” by some.
The coalition ended Umno’s uninterrupted rule of northern state Perlis after taking the lion’s share of support from the Malay-Muslim majority.
In early “midterms” on Aug 12, PN made unprecedented gains across all six states contested, although it failed to wrest the state governments of Penang, Selangor and Negeri Sembilan from Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition in the west.
However, PN swept aside the ruling alliance in the northern Malay belt of Kedah and Kelantan, and won all 32 state seats in Terengganu. Its victory was driven by its largest coalition party Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS); the “green wave” is derived from the party’s main colour.
In November’s General Election, however, PN took just two of 26 parliamentary wards in Johor – Muhyiddin’s birth state, where he served as chief minister for nine years up to 1995.
The result followed a dismal three of 56 assembly seats 18 months ago in the state election, where the Umno-led Barisan Nasional (BN) romped to a dominant victory.
In late 2021, PN also limped home with two of 28 seats in the state legislature of neighbouring Melaka.
But PN election director Sanusi Md Nor said at the coalition’s campaign launch on Wednesday that the Sept 9 votes were a “gateway” for “the wave that broke out in the recent six state elections to reach Johor and even go all the way to Singapore”.
“It starts here (at the by-elections) before we take over Johor in another 2½ years,” he said, referring to the next state election. Mr Sanusi was returned to power as Kedah chief minister a fortnight ago with a whopping 33-3 result in the northern state.
Malays, who have elsewhere swung towards PN even as Umno has lost sway with its traditional voter base, are the largest ethnic community in both Pulai and Simpang Jeram.
Muhyiddin’s Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia will field its Pulai deputy division chief Zulkifli Jaafar in the mixed constituency, where Malays make up 44 per cent of the electorate.
PAS central committee member Mazri Yahya will be fielded in Simpang Jeram, where 52 per cent of voters are Malay.
Muhyiddin said on Wednesday, when unveiling PN’s candidates, that the Aug 12 state election result was a “message in the form of a referendum by the people to reject the current federal administration for its failures”.
“We also need to bring the same message to the grassroots here, especially in Pulai and Simpang Jeram. So, give PN a chance to take over and run the government effectively,” he said.
Although neither vote will cause the loss of majority at both federal and state levels, PN has continued to coax ruling party legislators to withdraw support for Datuk Seri Anwar.
Parti Amanah Negara will seek to defend the two seats on behalf of PH and the so-called unity government, which also counts BN as its main ally in Peninsular Malaysia. The late Datuk Seri Salahuddin was Amanah’s deputy president.
Johor Amanah vice-chief Suhaizan Kayat will stand in Pulai, where he is also Amanah’s division chief. The party’s deputy Bakri division chief Nazri Abdul Rahman will contest Simpang Jeram.
Mr Suhaizan, a former state assembly speaker, has said he is confident of victory if the turnout exceeds 70 per cent.
In south Johor, many Chinese voters – who are largely PH supporters – reside and work in Singapore, and a low turnout, such as at the state elections in 2022, is usually due to this segment not returning to cast their ballots.
Pulai Umno chief Nur Jazlan Mohamed expects protest votes from Malays due to the current economic conditions and dissatisfaction over the party’s cooperation with PH.
“Non-Malay voters... need to turn up to balance the dissatisfaction among Malay voters,” the Umno supreme council member was quoted as saying by Free Malaysia Today.
Although victory for PN in both seats would be a huge fillip for the opposition, analysts believe that even a gain in vote share will lend momentum to the pact.
“Just like at the Aug 12 state polls, if the Amanah candidates’ vote share is much less than the combined PH and BN tally garnered last year, it will excite PN’s grassroots,” BowerGroupAsia’s political analyst Adib Zalkapli told The Straits Times.
