WASHINGTON – Countries around the world are delicately – but urgently – preparing for former US president Donald Trump’s possible return to the White House.

His convincing win in the Iowa caucuses on Jan 16 has further tightened his grip on the Republican nomination.

It sets up a probable rematch with US President Joe Biden, who lags in national polls.

Back in 2016, Trump’s election stunned US allies and rivals alike. This time, leaders are not taking any chances.

Residents of Washington’s Embassy Row have been scouring the city to meet ex-officials and anyone else close to the former president to get a read on his foreign policy plans.

Some have even reached out directly to Trump, massaging his ego, or seeking to head off his habitual complaint that Europe is not spending enough on defence.

Others are sounding the alarm publicly. “It is clearly a threat,” European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde told French TV last week, citing the lessons of Trump’s first term.

Few in power are so open. But interviews with government officials from Europe to Asia, Africa and Latin America lay bare their concerns – in some cases, their hopes – about the impact of a Trump reprise, for security, trade, and climate action, and the balance of global power.

Most asked not to be named discussing what is nominally an internal US matter, with the campaign only now picking up and predicted to be tight.

Fears, hopes

Many US allies are concerned about Trump’s America First rhetoric and threats to pull out of Nato, not to mention his protectionist trade policies.

At European Union summits, some leaders are scared to even mention the prospect of his return for fear of making it more likely, one senior diplomat said. 

With Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine heading into its third year, 2024 could be a tipping point for Europe’s security, said a Baltic official.

In the Middle East, Trump’s unquestioning embrace of Israel has some EU diplomats worried that the Gaza war might worsen, fuelling a new wave of refugees heading for Europe.

But some nations of the Global South see opportunities in the former president’s more transactional approach. 

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi enjoyed a personal rapport with Trump, and his government preferred the previous administration to Mr Biden’s, which has lectured New Delhi on human rights even as it has sought to enlist its support against China, according to officials. Their fondest hope: Trump picks Indian-American Vivek Ramaswamy as his running mate.

Brazil, which assumed the Group of 20 presidency from India, sees President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s G-20 plans for climate action, poverty reduction and reform of the International Monetary Fund as vulnerable to a resurgent Trump. 

Italy’s agenda for its G-7 presidency is similarly affected by the spectre of his return. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni also faces a personal and political dilemma, having cheered on Trump while in opposition at an event in Washington in 2019, but in office, cultivating a close relationship with Mr Biden. 

Perhaps counter-intuitively, the view from Beijing is one of little change in the fundamental trajectory of China-US relations.

Renmin University’s Institute of International Affairs’s director, Professor Wang Yiwei, noted that tariffs levied during the Trump presidency remain in place, and despite positive signals from 2023’s presidential meeting, what he called the US containment of China has not changed, bringing “real harm”.

Trade worries

In fact, China’s economy would benefit modestly from one of Trump’s signature initiatives, the imposition of 10 per cent across-the-board tariffs on imports and the likely retaliation it would bring, according to estimates by Bloomberg Economics. US growth and employment would slow. Canada and especially Mexico, fellow signatories of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), would suffer disproportionately.

Canada’s business community sees the USMCA as an existential issue – and it is due for a joint review in 2026.

Still, as a veteran of Trump’s first term, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau took care to stay on good terms with him in public, while his senior aides forged relationships with Trump’s staff behind the scenes. That gives his team some confidence they can “stick-handle” another Trump presidency, though no one pretends it would be easy.

Mexican officials are having conversations with all camps, including people in Trump’s orbit, and see their successful dealings with Trump before on complex topics like trade and migration as giving them confidence they can wrangle him again. What’s more, even though June elections mean a new Mexican president is due to take office in October, a singular focus in Washington on migration at the southern US border is likely to be something of a relief after the Biden administration’s additional interest in democracy, human rights and the environment.

The EU, which engaged in tit-for-tat sanctions with the Trump administration over US tariffs on steel and aluminium, wants to “Trump-proof” agreements with the US, though it is not clear how successful those efforts will be.

One senior EU diplomat – who put the chance of a Trump return at 50-50 – said there is a greater awareness of the bloc’s dependencies in energy and raw materials, and the need to address them. His possible return has come up several times at official meetings. 

Defence, security

Many of the most critical – and anxious – voices are to be heard in Europe, where governments are bracing themselves for the potential impact of Trump 2.0 on Russian relations, the Ukraine war and the future of Nato.

Several European delegations have been shuttling to Washington to reach out to Trump’s representatives and to the Heritage Foundation that is working on his policy platform.

The aim is partly to sound out who might be part of his administration to get a better handle on what to expect and to convey the message that Europe is paying its way in defence terms.

Personal ties are seen as key – something former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe grasped from the outset, according to Mr Ichiro Fujisaki, Japan’s ambassador to the US from 2008-2012.

“Abe-san’s way was to play golf and have a lot of time together,” he said. “But then try not to give in but to speak personally about what he needs and what he has done for Trump.”

Still, Trump demanded more money from Tokyo to pay towards the upkeep of US bases in Japan. It is a return to that quid-pro-quo approach to US security guarantees that worries many governments the most.

Taking no risks, Sweden, Finland and Denmark signed defence cooperation agreements with Washington in December. Finland is buying 64 F-35A fighter jets from the US, and in December announced investments to double artillery shell production. 

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, a favourite target of Trump’s in the past, has made no secret of his preference for Mr Biden, and there is anxiety in Berlin over what a new Trump administration could bring.

But Germany, too, is finally taking defence spending seriously, stepping up to help Ukraine militarily while deploying troops to the Baltic states. Mr Scholz has said that Germany should be ready to step in if others – read the US –  pare back aid for Kyiv.

Others in Europe worry that could come even before a change of administration, as Republican opposition has stalled US support in 2024.

Opportunities

Some sense a chance: France, which has consistently pushed for a more sovereign Europe in industrial and defence terms, is aware of the paradox that Trump may provide the best opportunity yet for Europe to overcome national reservations and come together.

Britain sees a possibility of restarting negotiations on a free trade deal with the US that was viewed by Conservatives as the prize of quitting the EU. Having made little progress under Mr Biden, the prospects may be brighter under Brexit supporter Trump. 

Trump is any case not much concerned by his European critics. “The last thing we’re really thinking about is a handful of people in Europe,” Mr Chris LaCivita, a Trump senior adviser, said in a roundtable hosted by Bloomberg News in Des Moines, Iowa, when asked about Ms Lagarde’s comments.

Trump enjoyed warm ties with Saudi Arabia, and his son-in-law, Mr Jared Kushner, has retained and built on his business relations in the United Arab Emirates, including setting up a private company in the Abu Dhabi Global Market in late 2023.

Trump’s temperament is in some ways more in tune with the UAE and other Gulf states, meaning there is not much that worries them about the prospect of his return.

But the reality is they are becoming used to volatility in US foreign policy and are moving to solve problems by themselves without relying on Washington.

Sheer unpredictability is an issue for all governments, though: Even Russia bemoans the inability to count on any long-term stable foreign policy strategy by Washington. With the war in Ukraine at a stalemate and likely to remain so in 2024, Russian eyes are on the US election.

There is a general sense that things will go better for Mr Putin and his entourage in 2024, with Trump’s re-election one of the main expectations, said a person familiar with the Kremlin’s thinking.

Still, after uncontrolled enthusiasm over Trump’s election in 2016 quickly gave way to disappointment that he did not deliver more for Moscow, the view this time is cautious. Whatever happens, the person said, the Kremlin will enjoy the spectacle. BLOOMBERG