SINGAPORE - Veteran China watcher Orville Schell said he is very pessimistic about the situation in the Taiwan Strait, adding that when pushed into a corner, China could take action that “could tip the world over in a heartbeat”.
His fellow panellist at the Asia Future Summit 2023, law expert Wang Jiangyu, while noting that China is in no hurry to take back Taiwan, said it might “play the Taiwan card” in retaliation against containment by the United States.
The duo, along with Nanjing University international relations expert Zhu Feng, were part of a lively discussion titled “US-China Cooperation in an Age of Strategic Competition” on Wednesday, the first day of the two-day summit held at The Ritz-Carlton, Millenia Singapore.
Professor Schell, the Arthur Ross director of the Asia Society’s Centre on US-China Relations, said it was a “tragedy” that cross-strait ties had deteriorated from the high of the 2015 meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and then Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou in Singapore.
“That was a good move. Singapore at its best,” he said.
But Mr Xi has since gone from the approach taken by his predecessors Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping of shelving the Taiwan issue, to wanting to solve it “sooner rather than later”.
Professor Zhu, however, had a different take on what has led to the deterioration of cross-strait relations. He said US policy on Taiwan has changed from recognising that both sides across the Taiwan Strait belong to One China, of which the legitimate government is the People’s Republic of China, to framing it as a question of defending the freedom and human rights of Taiwan’s 23 million people.
“Can the Chinese people accept this? It’s why Beijing planes keep flying over Taiwan... China can only play the military deterrence card.”
He added that the Taiwan issue has become a lot more complicated, given the Sino-US technology war and Taiwan being at the forefront of the semiconductor-manufacturing industry.
Ms Chow Yian Ping, editor of ThinkChina and the discussion’s moderator, asked the panel about the risk of war erupting over the Taiwan Strait.
Prof Schell said: “I’m very pessimistic because I think when leaders with thin skin and the problem of ‘face’ get painted into a corner, they have to act. I fear that could be what happens to China, Xi Jinping, if he feels that he has been humiliated. Remember, too, that China is a culture of grievances, humiliation and anger against hostile foreign forces, and it could precipitate very dangerous actions that could tip the world over in a heartbeat.”
Professor Wang, a law expert from the City University of Hong Kong, believes that China is in no hurry to take back Taiwan, which it views as an inalienable part of its territory, as doing so would present the headache of governing Taiwan’s 23 million people.
“The Taiwanese like to take to the streets to protest,” Prof Wang said to laughter. “They would take to the streets daily to scold the Chinese government, the Communist Party of China.”
SPH Media will holding a two-day conference on the future of Asia on Oct 4 and 5.
The by-invitation Asia Future Summit 2023 will bring together 300 delegates, thought leaders, policymakers and diplomats, and feature more than 20 speakers. They include Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, Australia’s former prime minister John Howard, the US’ former ambassador to Singapore Jon Huntsman and Infosys founder Narayana Murthy.
The event held at The Ritz-Carlton, Millenia Singapore will also discuss the world views of Mr Lee Kuan Yew, Singapore’s founding prime minister who died in 2015 and who would have turned 100 this year.
OCBC is the presenting sponsor of the event.
While there is no pressing need for China to reclaim Taiwan, it might “play the Taiwan card” in retaliation against American moves to contain China’s rise in an extreme scenario, he added.
The panel also discussed the likelihood of a meeting between Mr Xi and US President Joe Biden at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in San Francisco in November.
Prof Zhu said the chances of the Xi-Biden meeting are “very high” and that meetings between the top leaders of both sides, going back to the historic 1972 meeting between Mao Zedong and Richard Nixon, play an irreplaceable role in helping to keep up the stability of US-China ties.
On the possible Xi-Biden meeting, Prof Schell said President Biden, who is running for re-election in November 2024, probably knows Mr Xi better than any other world leader as they have met on many occasions. Mr Xi should recognise that Mr Biden really wants to make a deal, he added.
“He’s the best flight out, get on board, because you don’t know what’s coming after him,” he added to laughter from the audience.
The Asia Future Summit 2023, held on Wednesday and Thursday, is an inaugural collaboration between The Straits Times, Lianhe Zaobao and The Business Times.
- OCBC is the presenting sponsor for the Asia Future Summit 2023. The event is also supported by Guocoland and Kingsford Group.
