BANGKOK – Billionaire Thaksin Shinawatra and his family have dominated Thai elections for much of the past two decades.

A royalist establishment made up of army generals, judges and senior civil servants sees the clan as a threat to its political power, and the Shinawatras were ejected from office twice in military coups. The intense rivalry is returning to the fore after opposition parties, including one linked to Thaksin, prevailed in a May election.

With the country’s various factions negotiating deals to form a new government, Thaksin is preparing to return to Thailand after 15 years of self-imposed exile. The move is likely to exacerbate the political instability that is eroding investor confidence in South-east Asia’s second-biggest economy.

1. Who are the Shinawatras?

Descendants of a Chinese immigrant who married a Thai woman in the late 19th century, the Shinawatras are Thailand’s most prominent political dynasty, with two of its members occupying the country’s top political office at different times in the last 22 years.

Thaksin, 74, has been a polarising but enduring figure in the nation’s politics since he first became prime minister in 2001. A landslide victory for his Thai Rak Thai Party in 2005 won him a second term in office, which ended abruptly a year later in a military coup.

Thaksin left Thailand in 2008 to avoid corruption charges he said were politically motivated. His sister Yingluck faced a similar fate after her Pheu Thai Party won an election in 2011 and made her Thailand’s first female prime minister.

She was ousted by judicial order in 2014 and weeks later, her government was toppled in yet another coup. In May 2023, after almost nine years of military-backed rule in Thailand, Thaksin’s youngest daughter, 36-year-old Paetongtarn Shinawatra, ran for prime minister. Pheu Thai came second in the vote, behind the progressive Move Forward Party that is popular among young and urban voters.

2. How did the Shinawatras make their fortune?

Thaksin has portrayed himself as a self-made man from rural origins, but the family were already relatively wealthy when he was growing up.

The origin of their fortune was a silk business that his ancestors established in the north of the country in the early 20th century. During a 14-year career in the police force, Thaksin started dabbling in silk retail, cinemas, real estate and computer leasing – with little success – before striking rich in the technology boom of the 1980s and 1990s.

His head start in the computer business and his political connections allowed him to snap up government concessions to operate paging and mobile phone services, cable TV subscriptions, data networks, card phones and satellites.

At the height of his success, his Shin Corp, now called Intouch Holdings, owned Thai mobile operator Advanced Info Service and satellite firm Shin Satellite (now Thaicom). Shin Corp was sold to Singapore state investment firm Temasek in 2006.

Today, Shinawatra family members including Thaksin’s former wife and three children – Panthongtae, Pintongta and Paetongtarn – hold majority or controlling interests in companies spanning real estate to healthcare and hospitality. Some of those firms are listed on the Thai stock exchange, including property developer SC Asset, run by Thaksin’s son-in-law, Mr Nuttaphong Kunakornwong.

3. Why does the Thai establishment dislike the Shinawatras?

The Shinawatras’ electoral and financial clout makes them a formidable rival to the traditional elite that has dominated Thailand’s powerful state institutions since the era of absolute monarchy ended in 1932.

Thaksin’s entrepreneurial success and his credo of personal ambition and dignity echoed the American Dream and resonated with many ordinary Thais who had grown discontented with the paternalistic style of previous political leaders.

While many wealthier, well-educated and city-dwelling Thais accused Thaksin of cronyism, reckless populism and corruption, he enjoyed wide support among poorer and working-class voters in the country’s north and north-east who made up the majority of the Thai electorate and benefited from his big-ticket economic programmes that came to be known as “Thaksinomics”.

The groundswell of support for Thaksin was seen by the establishment as a threat to the country’s social hierarchy, in which the monarchy is perceived to sit at the top.

4. Why are the Shinawatras still popular?

In the wake of the 1997 Asian financial crisis, Thaksin spent heavily on grassroots measures designed to stimulate domestic demand, such as debt moratorium plans for farmers, low-cost housing projects and loans for small and medium-sized enterprises.

His flagship universal healthcare initiative of 2002 revolutionised access for poor people to medical care and has benefited millions of Thais two decades later. Its “gold card” is held by 47 million Thais, or 70 per cent of the population.

The loyalty this inspired among less-affluent voters helped political parties linked to Thaksin win the most parliamentary seats in four successive elections between 2001 and 2019, only for them to be dissolved by the constitutional court or removed from power by force.

Thaksin’s supporters formed the pro-democracy “Red Shirt” movement in 2007 to protest against his removal, and often clashed with the rival royalist “Yellow Shirt” group that sought to eradicate the Shinawatras from Thai politics.

5. Why did Thaksin and Yingluck go into exile?

Opponents accused Thaksin of abusing his power to benefit his family’s business interests. The sales of the Shinawatras’ majority stakes in Shin Corp to a foreign company were seen as the final straw, and mass protests by the Yellow Shirts eventually led to his downfall.

Thaksin claimed assassination attempts were made against him before and after the 2006 coup, making him fear for his safety if he remained in Thailand.

His then wife Pojamarn Damapong was sentenced to jail for tax evasion linked to a transfer of Shin Corp shares, and Thaksin decided to flee in 2008 to avoid corruption charges. He has spent the intervening years shuttling between Hong Kong, Singapore, Dubai and London, and been found guilty in absentia in four graft cases.

The offences included illegally concealing shares in Shin Corp and conflicts of interest over a state bank loan to Myanmar that benefited Shin Satellite.

Thaksin risks 10 years in prison if he returns to Thailand. Yingluck fled in 2017 and a court later sentenced her to five years in prison for criminal negligence in a rice subsidy programme that cost the state billions of dollars. BLOOMBERG