LANSING, Michigan – From toxic algal blooms in the Great Lakes to sewage pouring into Detroit basements to choking wildfire smoke that drifted south from Canada, Michigan has been contending with the fallout from climate change. Even the state’s famed cherry trees have been struggling against rising temperatures, forcing some farmers to abandon the crop.

But this state at the centre of the American auto industry has also been a laggard when it comes to climate action, resistant to environmental regulations that could harm the manufacturing that has underpinned its economy for generations.

That may soon change.

Michigan is one of three states where Democrats won a “blue trifecta” in 2022, taking control of the governor’s office and both legislative chambers, and they are seizing that opportunity to propose some of the most ambitious climate laws in the world.

The centrepiece is based on a 58-page “MI Healthy Climate” plan offered by Governor Gretchen Whitmer. It would require Michigan to generate all of its electricity from solar, wind or other carbon-free sources by 2035, eliminating the state’s greenhouse pollution generated by coal- and gas-fired power plants. The package would also toughen energy efficiency requirements for electric utilities and require a phaseout of coal-fired plants in the state by 2030.

Coal – the dirtiest of the fossil fuels – provided the largest share of electricity in Michigan, followed by nuclear energy and natural gas, in 2021, the most recent year for which data was compiled by the Energy Information Administration. Solar and wind generated about 11 per cent of the state’s electricity.

More than a dozen states and the District of Columbia are requiring utilities to switch to clean electricity, but almost none have the aggressive timeline that Michigan is considering, and there is no federal clean power mandate.

“For Michigan to do this would put it at the vanguard not just of state clean energy policy but of global clean energy policy,” said Mr Dallas Burtraw, an analyst at Resources for the Future, a non-partisan research organisation. “Michigan is globally recognised as the industrial heart of America, and one doesn’t think of it as being a clean energy leader. A lot of people will see this as a surprise.”

Democrats in Lansing, the capital, hope to send the climate Bills to Ms Whitmer’s desk by this autumn, although they could face a fight; they hold only a two-seat majority in both the House and the Senate.

Republican lawmakers and industry groups, including the Big Three automakers, oppose the clean power legislation and argue that wind, solar and other renewable energy sources are unreliable. Experts dispute that and point out that solar and wind farms kept the air-conditioning running in Texas when gas and coal plants were knocked offline during the current heatwave.

Mr Michael Johnston, a lobbyist for the Michigan Manufacturers Association, which represents Ford, General Motors and Stellantis as well as Dow Chemical and more than 1,000 other companies, said his group would support a voluntary goal for clean energy but not a mandate. “We need secure power so we can compete in the global economy,” he said.

DTE Energy, Michigan’s largest electric utility and a major political donor, has not taken a position on the clean energy legislation but is warning lawmakers that the measures could result in higher electric bills.

The utility, which generates more than half of its electricity from coal and 14 per cent from natural gas, has set a goal of achieving 100 per cent clean electricity generation by 2050, 15 years past the 2035 deadline that the new legislation would require.

State Representative Pauline Wendzel, the top Republican on the House Energy Committee, called it “the most radical and unrealistic policy proposal I’ve seen in my entire time serving in the legislature”, adding: “Lansing Democrats have decided to hit Michigan families hard, right when they can least afford it.”

Ms Whitmer has been arguing that Michigan cannot afford not to do something about climate change. The economic toll, from damaging storms to crop failures, is mounting, she said.

“People really understand and see that climate change is having a costly and dangerous impact on our lives,” Ms Whitmer said in an interview. “It’s an undeniable problem. And that’s why people here understand the economy is absolutely intertwined with what’s happening in climate.”

All of this is playing out in a state that will help determine the outcome of the 2024 presidential contest, where the Republican front-runner, former president Donald Trump, scoffs at climate science.

Ms Whitmer is framing climate policy as an opportunity to put Michigan at the forefront of emerging manufacturing. “When we transition our economy from internal combustion engines to EVs, Michigan will be one of the top states in the country for clean energy jobs,” she said.

Dr Barry Rabe, a professor of public policy at the University of Michigan, said public opinion in the state about the need for climate action is shifting.

“We have begun to see a kind of pivot and change in my community and around the state, looking at the flooding pattern, the temperatures and the accelerating changes in agriculture,” said Dr Rabe, who lives in Plymouth. “It’s become increasingly common to see officials running for statewide office and talk about the need to do something about it, and that’s something we had not seen.”

State Senator Sam Singh is a senior member of the environment committee and a sponsor of the legislation. “I’ve heard loud and clear from my communities that climate is an important issue for them,” he said. “My sense is that the general public is behind us.”

The push from Michigan Democrats comes as experts say that state action is essential if the United States is to meet President Joe Biden’s target of eliminating the nation’s greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 to avert the most catastrophic impacts of climate change. Mr Biden signed landmark climate legislation in 2022 and has proposed regulations to clean up electricity generation and speed the adoption of electric vehicles, but action by states is also needed.

While other states have been devastated by wildfires and hurricanes fuelled by climate change, Michigan is experiencing global warming in a range of subtle but economically significant ways, Ms Whitmer said.

“Extreme precipitation events”, defined as one month’s worth of rain in a single day, have been occurring more frequently in Michigan since 2016, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Those storms can easily overwhelm drainage systems built for an earlier era.

In June 2021, heavy rains stranded drivers and flooded basements around Detroit with nearly 15cm of rain in 24 hours, more than twice the rainfall that the region typically gets in an entire month.

In Mr Alerone Montgomery’s three-bedroom house, water poured through the roof as raw sewage bubbled up through the basement. Mr Montgomery, a 73-year-old retired autoworker, has spent US$25,000 (S$33,800) in repairs and remediation, but mould has continually reappeared and the walls have buckled.

“There had always been some flooding on and off in the 50 years I’ve lived here,” Mr Montgomery said in an interview. “But nothing like the last few years.”

Agriculture, a significant part of Michigan’s economy, is also straining under warming temperatures, creating problems for farmers that are “frankly heartbreaking,” said Dr Nikki Rothwell, a horticultural specialist with Michigan State University’s farm extension programme.

Mr Jim Bardenhagen’s family has been growing fruit for six generations on his 32ha farm near Suttons Bay, off northern Lake Michigan. Cold air blowing across the frozen lake in early spring has helped produce the tart cherries that are a staple of American diner pies.

But lately, the lake ice is melting earlier and earlier – if it freezes at all. “Now it’s maybe three years out of 10 that it freezes over at all, if that,” Mr Bardenhagen said. “And that’s not the kind of weather we need.”

Without the icy wind, the cherry trees can bloom too early – only to freeze before the fruit emerges, killing the season’s crop. “It’s like they take off their winter coats too soon,” Mr Bardenhagen said.

He now grows apples that he says are not as vulnerable to changing conditions. But heavier rains and warmer temperatures have brought bacterial diseases to the trees. “Something’s changing,” he said. “It’s just different.”

The Great Lakes define the state for many Michiganders and provide drinking water, fishing jobs and millions in tourism dollars. But they are increasingly clouded by toxic algal blooms that are spreading as the water warms. The blooms can harm people and even kill dogs, said Dr Gregory Dick, director of the Cooperative Institute for Great Lakes Research at the University of Michigan.

“In the past 10 years, we have seen it emerge in Lake Superior, which we think of as the deepest, coldest and most pristine of the Great Lakes, so it’s very surprising,” Dr Dick said.

In this purple state, some Michiganders don’t accept that the climate is changing.

“I’ve lived long enough to know the Earth isn’t getting any warmer,” said Mr Chad Bellingar, a shipping manager in Farwell, speaking outside a Culver’s restaurant. “The media directs people wrong.”

Mr Bellingar’s wife, Kim, a special education aide, concurred. “Wind and solar are great, but it doesn’t cover what’s needed,” she said. “And not everyone can afford them.”

State senator Singh has to overcome that scepticism as he shepherds the climate package through a narrowly divided legislature.

Mr Singh, who has received US$31,200 since 2012 from donors connected to DTE and has been endorsed by the Michigan Manufacturers Association, suggested he could amend the legislation to accommodate polluting industries. “We have to balance helping any industry that’s being impacted,” he said. NYTIMES