Coronavirus outbreak

Most virus infections mild: Chinese study

A doctor checks the condition of a patient at Jinyintan Hospital in Wuhan, China, on Feb 13, 2020. PHOTO: EPA-EFE

BEIJING • Most people infected by the new coronavirus in China have mild symptoms, with older patients and those with underlying conditions most at risk from the disease, according to a study by Chinese researchers.

The disease has now killed nearly 1,900 people and infected more than 72,000 in China since it first emerged in the central city of Wuhan late last year.

A paper published in the Chinese Journal of Epidemiology looked at 72,314 confirmed, suspected, clinically diagnosed and asymptomatic cases of Covid-19 illness across China as of Feb 11.

It is the biggest study on coronavirus patients since the outbreak began in late December last year.

Among the main findings of the paper by the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention are that some 80.9 per cent of infections are classified as mild, 13.8 per cent as severe and only 4.7 per cent as critical. The highest fatality rate is for people aged 80 and older, at 14.8 per cent.

The study finds that patients with cardiovascular disease are most likely to die of complications from the coronavirus, followed by patients with diabetes, chronic respiratory disease and hypertension. There were no deaths among children aged up to nine despite at least two cases of newborn babies infected through their mothers.

Up to age 39, the death rate remains low at 0.2 per cent. The fatality rate increases gradually with age. For people in their 40s, it is 0.4 per cent; in their 50s, it is 1.3 per cent; in their 60s, it is 3.6 per cent; and their 70s, it is 8 per cent.

Men are more likely to die (2.8 per cent) than women (1.7 per cent). The overall death rate from the virus stood at 2.3 per cent.

While the severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars) outbreak of 2002-2003 affected fewer people, the fatality rate was nearly 10 per cent.

  • What is known so far about Covid-19 cases

  • The Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention has published the first details of 44,672 confirmed cases of the Covid-19 disease.

    • Some 80.9 per cent of the confirmed cases have been mild, 13.8 per cent severe and 4.7 per cent critical.

    • Number of deaths among those infected rises among those over 80 years old.

    • Those with existing illnesses face higher risk of death, especially those with cardiovascular disease, followed by diabetes, chronic respiratory disease and hypertension.

    • There are also higher risks to medical staff.

    • The overall death rate of the virus is 2.3 per cent.

    • The death rate in Hubei province, at the centre of the outbreak, is 2.9 per cent, compared with 0.4 per cent in the rest of China.

    • Men are more likely to die (2.8 per cent) than women (1.7 per cent).

    • There were no deaths among children up to age nine despite at least two cases of newborn babies infected through their mothers.

    • Over 12,000 people have recovered from the virus.

The US Centres for Disease Control said between 26 million and 36 million Americans contracted seasonal flu between last October and Feb 8 this year, and there were 14,000 to 36,000 deaths - a fatality rate of around 0.1 per cent.

Nearly 86 per cent of those who have contracted the coronavirus either lived in or travelled to Wuhan, where a seafood market that sold wild animals illegally is believed to be the original source of the virus. The city in central China's Hubei province has been under lockdown since Jan 23.

A total of 3,019 health workers have been diagnosed, 1,716 of whom were confirmed cases, and five had died as of Feb 11, the report said.

AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE

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A version of this article appeared in the print edition of The Straits Times on February 19, 2020, with the headline Most virus infections mild: Chinese study. Subscribe