It has become painfully obvious in recent months that as the coup that toppled the government of Ms Aung San Suu Kyi approaches its third anniversary, things are not going well for Myanmar’s military rulers. Signs are pointing to fundamental shifts in the power struggle on the ground that bear a closer watch for what it means for the future of Myanmar and the region.

Huge swathes of territory in the border regions with China are falling into rebel hands, including areas where Chinese-influenced ethnic organisations had generally maintained peace with the military junta. Lately, these groups have ignored pressure from their handlers across the border and turned on the regime, which goes by the name of State Administration Council (SAC).