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China’s ‘economic long Covid’ at risk of lingering
Without a major fiscal stimulus, piecemeal measures will not defeat deflation or achieve growth targets.
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Uncompleted residential buildings at the State Guesthouse real estate project, on the outskirts of Shenyang, Liaoning Province, China.
PHOTO@ BLOOMBERG
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In 2023, China’s economic growth was the lowest since 1990 – barring the pandemic years – and it is headed even lower.
As deflation takes hold, consumer and business confidence is plummeting. Youth unemployment is over 20 per cent, according to the latest available figures. The stock market has tumbled more than 12 per cent in the past year. Foreign direct investment into China fell 82 per cent in 2023 to its lowest level since 1993. The property market is in a slump. Bank balance sheets are getting worse. The currency is under downward pressure, and the external environment facing China is challenging.
