BEIRUT – A deadly strike blamed on Israel against Iran’s diplomatic mission in Syrian capital Damascus could trigger a spillover of the Gaza war across the region, an escalation Teheran had sought to avoid, analysts said.

The strike on April 1 levelled the consular annex of the Iranian embassy and killed 13 people, including seven members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Iranian state media reported.

They included two senior commanders of the Guards’ Qud Force foreign operations arm, brigadier-generals Mohammad Reza Zahedi and Mohammad Hadi Haji Rahimi, Iranian officials said.

Mr Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group called the attack “a significant escalation”.

“By targeting an Iranian diplomatic facility, Israel has crossed a line,” he told AFP.

After months of battling Iran-backed Hamas militants in Gaza, Israel is now stepping up its operations against Iranian and pro-Iran commanders in Lebanon and Syria, a move observers fear could spiral into all-out war.

Iran has denied prior knowledge of Palestinian militant group Hamas’ unprecedented Oct 7 attack on Israel that triggered the war.

But it is one of Hamas’ top supporters and backs a plethora of armed groups that have attacked Israel in solidarity with Hamas, including Lebanon’s Hezbollah, which has exchanged near-daily fire with Israel for months.

Although Iran has said it wants to avoid full-scale war, its supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, warned on April 2 that “Israel will be punished” for the Damascus strike, while President Ebrahim Raisi said the raid “will not go unanswered”.

Towards escalation

Mr Bassam Abu Abdallah, who heads the Damascus Centre for Strategic Research and is close to the Syrian government, said that before April 1, “there were rules of engagement, but now it’s an all-out war between Israel and the resistance axis”.

Iran and its supporters use the term “resistance axis” to refer to its alliance with armed groups around the region which share its resolutely anti-Zionist and anti-American stance.

“It is now clear that the trend is towards escalation,” Mr Abu Abdallah said, adding: “We could start to see increased attacks against US bases in Syria, Iraq or elsewhere.”

In late January, pro-Iran groups said they were suspending attacks against US troops in Iraq and Syria to avert a regional escalation after both Baghdad and Teheran said they opposed the groups’ campaign.

On April 2, Hezbollah warned that the strike on the Iranian consulate “will not pass without the enemy receiving punishment and revenge”.

Israel has responded to Hezbollah fire from Lebanon by extending its attacks deeper into the country and multiplying assassinations of the group’s commanders.

The Shi’ite Muslim militant group, which boasts a big arsenal of rockets and missiles, has largely restricted its attacks on Israel to the border region.

The Crisis Group’s Mr Vaez said: “Iran is more likely than not to impose a cost on Israel, but it is likely to do so in an indirect manner and through its partners and proxies in the region.

“Iran’s dilemma is that failure to respond could signal weakness to Israel but retaliation risks a harsher US or Israeli action”.

Transnational war

The Damascus strike could signal that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, entangled in the Hamas war for nearly six months, is preparing for a wider regional conflict.

Under pressure from Washington, “Netanyahu is running out of time to conduct the war in Gaza, and is instead turning to Lebanon and Syria to weaken the Iranian regional military effort”, said Mr Nick Heras of the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy.

“Israel views the conflicts against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon as two fronts in a transnational war against Iran, which the Iranians run from Damascus,” Mr Heras added.

He said Mr Netanyahu “expects Israel to have to soon fight a regionwide war with Iran” and for the US to join it.

“The Israelis are trying to eliminate the most important and seasoned IRGC commanders to weaken Iranian planning and capabilities ahead of that war,” he added.

But diplomatic efforts are under way to de-escalate tensions, with Syrian ally Russia calling for a UN Security Council meeting on the strike later on April 2.

Washington has told Teheran it was not involved in the Israeli strike, according to an American official quoted by US media outlet Axios. AFP