LONDON - Since becoming prime minister in October 2022, Mr Rishi Sunak has had support from the vast majority of Conservative politicians, who were convinced another change of leader would do far more political damage than keeping him.

Some senior Tories are starting to wonder if that is changing.

In recent days, Cabinet ministers have held private discussions exploring the possibility the party might be forced to replace Mr Sunak before the next UK election due later in 2025, according to people familiar with the matter.

The question was whether a caretaker leader would help hold back the opposition Labour Party surge that many fear is coming, they said.

Mr Sunak’s office declined to comment.

The catalyst for the discussions has been a series of political flaps that appeared to expose Mr Sunak’s inability to make swift political judgments, including the roll-out of new tax cut promises and a controversy over racist remarks allegedly said by a top Tory donor.

The episode has coincided with a further decline in support, with one poll showing the Conservatives with their worst-ever rating.

Ministers involved in the talks remain supportive of Mr Sunak and do not want a leadership change now, the people said.

No rivals appear to have enough support to mount a challenge, bolstering allies’ hopes that the Prime Minister can last until an election he has said is likely to be held in the second half of 2024. 

Still, the fact that members of Mr Sunak’s government are broaching the topic, even in private, suggests he may be entering a period of new peril.

Major flashpoints loom, including potential court challenges to his plan to deport asylum seekers to Rwanda and local elections on May 2, in which the Tories fear heavy losses.

Besides trailing by more than 20 points to Labour in the polls, the Conservatives must also worry about the gaining Reform UK group founded by Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage.

Some Tories argue a change may be necessary to save the more than 300-year-old party’s status as the standard-bearer of Britain’s mainstream right. 

The ministers worry the pressure on Mr Sunak may become unsustainable.

The uncertainty around him echoes the struggles all three of his immediate predecessors – Mrs Theresa May, Mr Boris Johnson and Ms Liz Truss – faced in the months before handing over control of the ruling party and the government.

Some MPs suspect Downing Street is dangling the threat of a snap election in May over the party’s head, since most Tory lawmakers do not want to face voters now.

Mr Graham Brady, a senior Tory backbencher, has urged Mr Sunak against calling a May election, a person familiar with the matter said.

Some MPs want Mr Sunak to appoint a new political team, to provide more direction and to try to reverse the party’s slumping fortunes.

The wider party’s desire to avoid more leadership chaos has so far helped Mr Sunak, who is generally credited with restoring some normalcy to government.

But his rapid policy U-turns – such as vowing to shake up a “30-year status quo”, only to bring former premier David Cameron back into the fold as foreign secretary – have roiled Tories and failed to lift his poll numbers.

Internal unhappiness spread wider in March.

First, Mr Lee Anderson – an MP whom Mr Sunak made deputy Tory chairman in an appeal to the right – defected to Reform UK in protest against his suspension from the parliamentary party over comments about London’s Muslim mayor.

The next day, Mr Sunak condemned alleged comments by the party’s largest donor, Mr Frank Hester, as “racist” – even as he sidestepped questions about returning his £10 million (S$17 million) of contributions. 

That prompted awkward comparisons among some Tories with former premier Boris Johnson’s defence of former aide Chris Pincher, amid allegations of sexual misconduct in 2022.

In both cases, Tories felt burnt when they followed the premier in defending a controversial figure, only to be left exposed when the leader suddenly changed tack. 

For now, Mr Sunak appears protected by the disagreement among Tory rebels about who should lead.

Contenders from different factions have emerged, including Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch on the right, and both House of Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt and Defence Secretary Grant Shapps from closer to the centre. 

Ms Badenoch showed the contrast she offers to Mr Sunak when she posted on social media that Mr Hester’s reported remarks were “racist”, even as the Premier was sidestepping such clarity.

Mr Sunak issued a similar condemnation hours later. 

If a candidate emerged who could take over without a full-blown leadership contest, Mr Sunak would likely be removed, two senior ministers said. For now, many Tories are looking towards the local elections.

A similar battering to the one in 2023, when the party lost about 1,000 council seats, would make it difficult for Mr Sunak to explain to his MPs why he should lead the party into the general election just a few months later, one minister said. BLOOMBERG