LONDON (BLOOMBERG) - Boris Johnson will on Wednesday (Oct 2) send his final Brexit offer to the European Union, warning that he will walk away from the table and take Britain out of the bloc without a deal if Brussels doesn't engage with him.
Addressing his Conservative Party's annual conference in Manchester, England, the prime minister will attempt to retake control of the agenda after political miscalculations have seen him defeated both in Parliament and the courts.
But he's issuing a threat that risks repeating those humiliations.
Johnson's gambit will only succeed if someone compromises. The EU would have to give some ground on questions around the Irish border. Members of Parliament in Johnson's Tory Party would have to vote for a deal that contains elements they dislike. This week has seen some hints that both could move - though possibly not far enough.
In his speech, Johnson will underline the incentives for each side: To the EU, a chance to move on from Brexit, and to his party, the possibility of an election victory. Johnson wants to deliver the divorce and then call an election.
"Voters are desperate for us to focus on their other priorities - what people want, what leavers want, what remainers want, what the whole world wants - is to move on," Johnson will say, according to speech extracts released by his office.
"Let's get Brexit done - we can, we must and we will."
Johnson will describe his offer as a "fair and reasonable compromise" that both sides can agree on. The question is what happens if the EU doesn't see it that way. What they have heard of his proposals so far - and his tougher tone on Tuesday - alarmed them, according to European officials.
The prime minister's office said this would be his "final" offer and if rejected Britain would walk away and begin preparations for a no-deal Brexit. Such a move could see Johnson again challenged in the courts, or even removed from power.
Under a law passed last month, he is required to seek an extension to EU membership if he has not secured a deal. It's not clear he will heed it though. "The prime minister will in no circumstances negotiate a delay," his office said.
This week has seen some hints that there might just be a way to get a deal. Tory MPs who refused to vote for the agreement that Theresa May negotiated hinted they could be persuaded to back a deal to avoid losing Brexit altogether.
The Democratic Unionist Party - a key ally from Northern Ireland - has been publicly supportive of Johnson and his negotiating efforts this week. Johnson said at an event in Manchester alongside DUP figures late on Tuesday that he hoped to clinch a deal in the next few days.
In what could be a move to steer Britain to an area where compromise is possible, EU governments have privately discussed allowing a time limit on the so-called Irish backstop - the most controversial part of the deal, according to two people familiar with the situation. But a concession will only be on offer if Johnson brings a workable proposal, officials said.
With less than a month to go until Britain is due to leave the EU, everything still hangs on the question of the Irish border. Once the UK has left the EU's customs union, there will need to be border controls, but both sides say they are opposed to physical infrastructure.
Johnson has said he wants to abolish the backstop - designed as an insurance policy to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland - because it risks trapping the UK in EU rules indefinitely. In interviews this week, he said the answer was "absolutely minimal and non-intrusive" customs checks.
"There will have to be a system, for customs checks away from the border," the prime minister said in an interview with the BBC. "That is where the argument is going to be. And that's where the negotiation will be tough."
If that's the offer on Wednesday, the negotiations could be short. Ireland is opposed to any deal that includes physical customs checks.
Johnson owes his job to Brexit. It was his leadership of the campaign in 2016 that secured his place in the hearts of Tory activists, and his resistance to May's deal that created the vacancy that he filled. On Wednesday he will try to channel voter frustration with the process.
"After three and a half years people are beginning to feel that they are being taken for fools," he will say. "They are beginning to suspect that there are forces in this country that simply don't want Brexit delivered at all."
