The situation in Afghanistan could draw militants to the country and pose a threat to the safety of Singapore and its neighbours by inspiring other violent extremist groups, say security experts.
Singapore's Internal Security Department (ISD) and observers told The Straits Times the Taleban's advances in Afghanistan could result in increased terror-related activities in South-east Asia, including driving up recruitment by radical groups and emboldening them to launch attacks.
An ISD spokesman said there is now no specific terrorist threat to Singapore from the situation in Afghanistan, but the ongoing developments there are of concern.
He said the security vacuum and civil conflict could allow transnational militant organisations such as Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) to regroup or establish safe havens, as they had in other conflict zones.
"These terrorist groups may call upon ideological narratives to draw recruits to Afghanistan as a theatre for jihad," said the ISD.
The Taleban, a hardline Islamist group, ruled Afghanistan from 1996 until it was ousted by the US following the Sept 11, 2001, attacks on America. Since then, it has waged an insurgency against the US-backed government.
Mr Prakhar Sharma, a PhD candidate in political science at Syracuse University in New York who has been studying developments in Afghanistan, said the US withdrawal has played a crucial role in enabling the situation there.
Meanwhile, the ISD spokesman said the region's experience with the Soviet-Afghan conflict from 1979 to 1989, which later gave rise to the Taleban, is instructive. The conflict drew around 10,000 foreign fighters, including several hundred South-east Asians.
Through their experience in Afghanistan, these militants developed links to Al-Qaeda and formed a fraternity. On returning to South-east Asia, they continued to pursue a path of violence through regional militant groups such as Jemaah Islamiah (JI), and imparted their operational skills to fellow members, said the ISD.
At least 11 Singapore JI detainees were known to have attended military training in Al-Qaeda camps in Afghanistan, and several were involved in terror plots targeting Singapore. ISD noted that a few even collaborated with an Al-Qaeda operative on a plot to mount suicide truck-bomb attacks against Western embassies in Singapore.
In recent years, Afghanistan has continued to draw militants from the region, and the ISD spokesman said developments there may attract radicalised individuals seeking to take part in armed violence.
Mr Muhammad Faizal Abdul Rahman of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies' (RSIS) Centre of Excellence for National Security said the Taleban's gains could be newfound motivation for regional extremist groups and home-grown extremists who share similar ideological beliefs.
RSIS visiting fellow Noor Huda Ismail said the Taleban's victories will continue to inspire regional Islamists to emulate its tactic of seizing power without using democratic means. "The Taleban's victory has security repercussions, especially... among pro-Islamic state types in the region, including Indonesians, Malaysians and Singaporeans," he said.
RSIS senior analyst Jasminder Singh warned of another area of concern - the resumption of inactive terror cells in the region, especially in Indonesia, where JI has been active. "JI elements may become active, including undertaking bombing operations to make their presence felt," he said.
Social media heightens the danger, with Mr Singh highlighting how it is used by terror groups in a variety of ways to raise funds, spread ideology, recruit new members and share news.
Indonesian militants have previously used social media to communicate with their contacts in Afghanistan, said Dr Noor Huda.
He also noted how these platforms have changed the recruitment landscape for terror groups. They are moving away from "collective action", where individuals have to be part of a formal group like JI or Al-Qaeda, to "connective action", where individuals are connected to the idea of the group, even if they have never physically met them, he said.
Most experts said the threat level to Singapore remains low for now, given the Taleban's focus on regaining control of Afghanistan.
Singapore has also implemented many protective measures, said Mr Faizal. "These include the Terrorism (Suppression of Financing) Act that prohibits providing material support to terrorist entities including the Taleban, more police cameras that could detect hostile surveillance, and border security and Covid-19 travel restrictions that help to keep out foreign fighters."
But vigilance is still important, given how groups like ISIS continue to radicalise individuals online and mobilise them to commit violent acts, said Ms Susan Sim, vice-president for Asia at New York-based The Soufan Group, a strategic security consultancy.
She also pointed out that terror groups are growing bigger. Al-Qaeda, for instance, now has 30,000 to 40,000 members worldwide, compared with roughly 400 members 20 years ago.
"The dilemma now is that people may feel so secure they tune out reminders to be vigilant. Yet the true test of whether SGSecure is effective would, obviously, be apparent only in the event of an attack," said Ms Sim, referring to the national awareness movement. "That is when you know if Singaporeans will hold together and remain resilient. But with each year passing without incident, sustaining public interest becomes challenging."
The ISD spokesman said social media is expected to continue playing a role in terror radicalisation and recruitment. "Public vigilance is key for the detection of radicalised individuals."
