China’s recovery is not suffering from a surplus of optimism. Instead of a boom that would significantly reset the faltering global outlook and give a generous lift to Asia, the expansion may be only a modest tick.

This middling performance is better than none when we are talking about a US$18 trillion (S$24 trillion) economy, the second largest in the world and one still in with a fighting chance of overtaking the United States this decade. But the rebound is far from the high hopes that accompanied the end of zero-Covid in December. Perhaps China is best seen as two recoveries: A struggling manufacturing one, with limited upside beyond the nation’s shores, and a robust domestic scene dominated by consumer spending.