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The geopolitical waters are turbulent but don’t count China out yet

Falling FDI figures are grim but they don’t provide the full picture of how companies are reacting to political pressures.

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China is home to the largest, deepest and most advanced manufacturing sector in the world.

China is home to the largest, deepest and most advanced manufacturing sector in the world.

PHOTO: AFP

Bert Hofman and Frank Pieke

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Foreign direct investment (FDI) into China was

down to US$30 billion (S$40.3 billion) in 2023,

a level not seen since the 1990s and almost 90 per cent less than the peak inflows of 2021. Forward-looking indicators, such as announced greenfield investments and mergers and acquisitions, also show a distinct move away from investment in China.

Clearly, attitudes towards investing in China are changing. Numbers from fDi Intelligence, a service that tracks announced FDI deals, suggest that China will continue to lose share in global FDI – and that India, Vietnam, Mexico and others are gaining. Surveys of the European and American chambers of commerce also reveal a growing share of companies that seek diversification away from China.

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