Two years into the latest Russian invasion of Ukraine – Crimea has been under Moscow’s occupation since 2014 – it is time to take stock of where the war stands. Pitiably, it is not looking good for the victim. Russia has just made its biggest war advance in nine months with the capture of the city of Avdiivka, and embattled Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has switched army chiefs. How the new man performs will depend not just on his troops, who have shown exceptional valour, but on what outside powers, principally the United States, can do to help his cause.

The war has been exceptionally brutal. Estimated casualties now run into the hundreds of thousands. Once dismissed as a mere television comedian, Mr Zelensky, from the first day, has impressed with his resolve to stay the fight. On the other hand, those who forecast a swift downfall for Russian leader Vladimir Putin given his military’s early setbacks, have come to realise that he is far more entrenched than they had imagined. Indeed, on Ukraine, the Russian power elite seem to be of one mind – that the war is necessary to halt further eastward expansion of Nato, and Ukrainian entry would mean potential encirclement by the security grouping.