Since Dec 7, China has relaxed its strict zero-Covid policies, ending mass polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing as well as health-code checks and allowing infected people with mild symptoms to recover at home. After three years of rolling lockdowns and movement restrictions, the new policy will pave the way for normal human activity to resume and for the economy to recover. The government has also ended centralised quarantine and mandatory Covid-19 testing for inbound travellers and relaxed restrictions on outbound travel. China’s pivot away from zero-Covid has been welcomed, both within China and by its trade partners. Foreign business associations have hailed the move as a plus for investor confidence and market sentiment. The resumption of travel will, in particular, boost the aviation and hospitality sectors everywhere, especially in Asia.

However, China’s abrupt transition to living with Covid-19 is unlikely to be smooth. One problem is that it did not use the time bought by its zero-Covid policy to fully vaccinate its people or to import more effective vaccines. Its full vaccination rate, (including one booster) is relatively low at around 60 per cent for the population and just over 40 per cent for those over 80. With herd immunity kept at bay by zero-Covid policies, people’s vulnerability to infections is high. Quoting estimates from the government’s top health authority, Bloomberg reported that infections totalled 37 million people on a single day in the third week of December. There are anecdotal reports of hospitals being overwhelmed and severe shortages of drugs.