Japan is rapidly building up its military potential, and recent developments confirm the momentum may be increasing. The reasons why it is leaving behind its post-war restrictions include not just intensified threats from potential adversaries, but also the possibility of abandonment by long-time ally the United States.

The Japanese government made three breakthrough security policy decisions in 2022-2023: raising defence spending from 1 per cent to 2 per cent of the country’s gross domestic product within five years, acquiring long-range “counterstrike” capabilities, and allowing the export of lethal military equipment to help maintain Japan’s defence industrial base. Each of these changes overturned a longstanding taboo.