NEW YORK – The fight between TikTok, the short-form video service, and Universal Music Group, the world’s largest music company, is about to get worse. 

In the coming days, many additional songs from some of the biggest artistes and songwriters, including Harry Styles and Coldplay, will no longer be available on TikTok, according to people with knowledge of the matter, marking a major escalation in a disagreement that has been raging for weeks. 

The dispute kicked off in January, when Universal’s contract with TikTok lapsed and the two companies failed to find common ground on an extension.

Afterwards, myriad songs from Universal’s extensive catalogue, which includes work from artistes such as Taylor Swift and The Weeknd, began disappearing from the platform, limiting the music choices of TikTok’s more than one billion users. At the time, due to a clause in the expiring contract, tracks represented by Universal’s publishing division remained available.

But in the weeks since then, the companies have failed to reach a new agreement, and beginning on Feb 26 night, the additional songs started coming down as well, said the people, who asked not to be identified discussing non-public information. A last-minute deal could still be reached, though it appears increasingly unlikely, they added. 

The removal of Universal’s publishing catalogue from TikTok will impact not just artistes signed to the company’s record labels, but also many other performers across the industry. Styles, for example, releases music through Sony Music Entertainment, but is signed with Universal for his publishing rights.

The exact size of the coming purge remains unclear. Universal’s recorded music catalogue includes over three million songs. As at 2022, the publishing operation had nearly four million songs that it owned and administered.

A TikTok spokesperson said Universal and its publishing unit collectively represent 20 to 30 per cent of popular music on the platform, depending on the territory.

“The reach of a publishing company like Universal is far wider than a record label and a sound recording,” said Mr David Israelite, president and chief executive of the United States National Music Publishers’ Association. “It goes far beyond the recordings of Universal, the record label – the impact is much bigger.”

The escalating fight could do much to reshape the fraught relationship between social media companies and musicians.

Universal is trying to force TikTok, which is owned by Chinese Internet conglomerate ByteDance, to increase its payments to record companies and artistes. The company also wants protections against the use of its music to train artificial intelligence models.

So far, TikTok has baulked at Universal’s terms while arguing that its app provides invaluable promotion for artistes.

At the end of 2023, TikTok executives thought they had made peace with the music industry, which for years had lambasted the company over its compensation to artistes.

Entering 2024, Mr Ole Obermann, TikTok’s global head of music, had closed deals with Sony and Warner Music Group, ensuring songs from the two major labels would continue appearing on the platform.

The service was also working on a new deal with Universal and extended its contract by a month to iron out the final details, according to people familiar with the conversations who were not authorised to speak about it publicly.

But on Jan 30, the week of the Grammy Awards in Los Angeles, Universal published an open letter saying it was at an impasse with TikTok.

The letter took TikTok’s team by surprise, and the timing could not have been worse. The following day, the company’s chief executive Chew Shou Zi was set to testify in front of the US Congress, and the news quickly became the talk of Grammy week.

In written statements, the companies traded barbs. TikTok called Universal “greedy”, while Universal called TikTok a “bully”. Roughly two days after the first letter, Universal’s music began disappearing from TikTok, and numerous videos went silent. 

In recent weeks, many music companies have rallied behind Universal. In general, TikTok pays labels a lump sum for the rights to their catalogues, with the possibility of larger payouts depending on how many times videos are created using their tracks.

Many in the music industry believe TikTok is not paying enough, considering it has built a substantial advertising business around videos with soundtracks. ByteDance’s sales topped US$110 billion (S$148 billion) in 2023, while TikTok is valued at more than US$250 billion. 

Artistes are less sure who to blame. Some have criticised TikTok, while others have expressed displeasure with Universal or confusion about how the corporate disagreement might undermine their livelihoods.

So far, the impact of the stalemate on consumers has been muted.

After initially venting their frustration, many TikTok users have adjusted, setting videos to songs that are still available. With reduced competition on the platform, songs from the Billboard Top 100 chart that were not swept up in the initial Universal takedown have grown in usage, according to Round, a digital agency that operates a TikTok analysis tool. 

Universal’s financial losses from the quarrel are expected to be minimal, in part because TikTok represents only about 1 per cent of its annual sales. Since the start of the purge on TikTok, the overall consumption of Universal’s songs on other distribution channels has changed minimally, said the people.

The next phase of the dispute – pulling down songs based on publishing rights – is likely to be a messy process.

Even if a Universal-represented songwriter contributed just a couple of lines to a song recorded by an artiste on another label, the music will be removed. As a result, the whole industry is likely to get swept up in the coming changes. 

Meanwhile, many of the current workarounds favoured by TikTok users – such as choosing cover versions of Universal-recorded songs – will likely be less effective. BLOOMBERG