Eighteen months ago, Umno won 54 seats in Parliament in the Malaysian general election.
Today, it has 37 MPs left, with the possibility of a further decline as Malaysian politics has become extremely fluid following the unexpected victory of the Pakatan Harapan (PH) alliance in May last year.
Many Umno federal lawmakers had left to join Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad's party while others became independent MPs.
Two weeks ago, more political intrigue emerged when 22 Umno MPs had dinner at the home of Economic Affairs Minister Azmin Ali, a visit that prompted intense speculation over yet another round of political realignment.
But as Umno prepares to hold its second general assembly as an opposition party next week, its outlook appears to have brightened somewhat. This is in contrast to the funereal atmosphere at last year's assembly, with its poor attendance and uninspiring speeches by shell-shocked leaders.
At the annual gathering to be held from Wednesday to Saturday, Umno leaders are expected to hail the formal cooperation pact with long-term political nemesis Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS). It will also be buoyed by the four by-election wins this year by the Umno-led Barisan Nasional (BN).
"It is appropriate that the December assembly comes at the end of these historic events, so we will hold the assembly in a happier mood and atmosphere," Umno's secretary-general Annuar Musa told a news conference on Tuesday.
More than 5,000 delegates from its 191 divisions and three wings - Women's, Youth and Puteri (Young Women) - will attend the meeting at its Putra World Trade Centre headquarters in Kuala Lumpur.
"Umno has managed to turn the tide in double quick time but the political road ahead will be bumpy," said Dr Mustafa Izzuddin, a research fellow at the Institute of South Asian Studies at National University of Singapore.
Umno must grapple with several issues, he added, including retaining BN's other component parties: the Malaysian Chinese Association and Malaysian Indian Congress.
Umno also needs to persuade the governing parties in East Malaysia to lend their support to BN, "and ensure that the Umno-PAS pact is durable enough to be sustainable".
The agreement with PAS, formalised in September, has opened a big door for the Malay nationalist party because over half of the 222 parliamentary wards are Malay-majority seats. Umno and PAS won two-thirds of the Malay votes in the May 2018 general election.
The two parties are working on a mechanism to ensure only a BN or a PAS candidate will face off against PH in an electoral fight - a tactic that led to success in the four by-elections.
Umno Youth chief Asyraf Wajdi Dusuki showed on his Facebook account on Thursday how serious the country's two biggest Malay-Muslim opposition parties are in moving forward as one, united front.
He posted two pictures of top Umno and PAS leaders in a meeting room, with an accompanying caption that says the discussions centred on "the country's future and issues affecting the people".
