BANGKOK – Thai universities are struggling due to lower enrolments linked to a sharp decline in the number of new births over the past several years, an education professional said.

Mr Arnond Sakworawich, head of the business analytics and intelligence programme at the Graduate School of Applied Statistics of the National Institute of Development Administration (Nida), noted that most Thai universities have not been able to meet their enrolment targets.

Many state and private universities organise three to five rounds of admission sessions but still fail to fill all the places, he said.

The current Thai higher education market is relatively small, with 200 to 300 universities taking in fewer students than their annual capacity.

Additionally, there has been a continuous decline in the number of births over the past five years.

Thirty years ago, Thailand had over a million births, but currently the number has dropped by half to 500,000 to 600,000 a year.

Thailand registered 544,000 births in 2021, the lowest in at least six decades. 

In 2005, the country started becoming an ageing society, and it became a full-fledged ageing society in 2022. Then, statistics showed that the elderly population had reached 12,116,119, accounting for 18.3 per cent of the total population of about 70 million.

By 2027, Thailand is expected to become an ageing society at an advanced level, similar to Japan, with the elderly population accounting for 28 per cent of the total population.

The birth rate is very low, with only a 0.18 per cent increase in population from new births.

As the number of Thai students entering universities continues to decline, it undoubtedly has an impact on the entire Thai education system, Mr Arnond said.

State and private universities might struggle to survive in the next five years if they do not adapt, possibly leading to mergers or closures, he added.

Thai universities have managed to survive by actively recruiting Chinese students. At some institutions, they make up half of the total student population. Approximately three million Chinese students have enrolled, he said.

They contribute substantially to revenue, paying tuition fees from 40,000 to 50,000 baht (S$1,535 to S$1,920) each semester in private and state universities such as Thammasat University, Chulalongkorn University and Nida, Mr Arnond said.

The decrease in the number of students has resulted in a sharp drop in revenue for universities. Some have started laying off teachers or adjusting their working conditions to be more flexible, he added.

From a positive perspective, it is an opportunity for the private sector to tap Thai universities for research in various fields to increase business value.

However, the success depends on the potential of the teachers and their ability to drive research with the assistance of students.

This becomes a problem when universities are declining, and it remains to be seen how the new government will provide solutions, Mr Arnond added.

THE NATION/ASIA NEWS NETWORK