To pardon or not to pardon Samsung scion Lee Jae-yong - that is the question troubling South Korean President Moon Jae-in.
Lee, 52, vice-chairman of Samsung Electronics and de facto head of the Samsung Group, was thrown behind bars in January for embezzlement and bribery.
Samsung has been lobbying for his release, emphasising that the company needs him to lead the country's largest conglomerate amid growing global competition.
Asked last week if he would pardon Lee, Mr Moon said he was hearing a lot of opinions. "We must endeavour to boost the competitiveness of our semiconductor industry, but it is also important to consider fairness, precedent and public sentiment," he said.
Aug 15 is seen as a possible date for Lee's release, although he is on trial separately for accounting fraud and a controversial merger of two Samsung affiliates.
If lobby groups, opinion polls and press editorials are any indication, there is a growing number of people who want Lee out of prison as they fear that Samsung - which is responsible for about 20 per cent of South Korea's gross domestic product - is lost without him.
Some observers say releasing Lee can allow him to use his leverage for a "vaccine swap" deal with the United States when Mr Moon meets US President Joe Biden on Friday. The US is reportedly pressuring Samsung to invest in another manufacturing plant in the US and, in return, Samsung can demand a deal with biopharmaceutical firm Moderna to produce its vaccines in South Korea.
Five major business groups sent a petition to the presidential Blue House last month seeking a pardon for Lee. A survey last week showed that 64 per cent of respondents wanted Lee to be pardoned, while 27 per cent objected to the idea.
Two representatives from the ruling liberal Democratic Party have called for Lee's pardon. Lawmaker Yang Hyang-ja warned that Samsung is now "fighting in the global battlefield without a leader".
Lawmaker Lee Won-wook said: "The economy is unstable due to Covid-19 and people are demanding for Lee to be pardoned so as to overcome the country's semiconductor crisis."
Justice Minister Park Beom-kye, however, was firm in his objection. "As minister of justice... I have never considered (a pardon for Lee)," he was cited as saying.
And Lee's absence has not dented Samsung's performance.
Driven by a rise in sales of smartphones and consumer electronics despite a weakened semiconductor business, Samsung Electronics earned a record-high revenue of 65.39 trillion won (S$77 billion) in the first three months of this year. Operating profit rose nearly 45.53 per cent from the previous year.
Lee was jailed for 21/2 years for offences that include bribing disgraced former president Park Geun-hye and her friend Choi Soon-sil, who are in prison too.
Public opinion has turned against Lee's imprisonment, noted international relations professor Lee Jung-hoon of Yonsei University. "People think it's unfair and uncalled for to keep incarcerated someone who is supposed to be at the global front fighting for Samsung against all the competition," he told The Straits Times. "Samsung takes a huge chunk of the South Korean economy and to put (him) in prison cannot look good for the morale of the company."
Professor Chang Sea-jin of the National University of Singapore, author of the book Sony Vs Samsung: The Inside Story Of The Electronics Giants' Battle for Global Supremacy, said the time is right to consider a pardon for Lee. "Samsung needs him to spearhead its efforts to go into more advanced manufacturing," he told ST.
However, he added: "The main reason he's in prison is because Park and Choi are still in prison. If they are in prison for taking bribes, how can you free the people who gave them bribes?"
