CANBERRA – Australian coal exports are set to rise for at least the next three years on growing demand for the dirtiest fossil fuel in India and South-east Asia, according to a new report from Canberra.
Thermal and metallurgical coal shipments – used for power generation and steelmaking, respectively – will both rise steadily by volume until at least 2025, the latest quarterly energy and resources report released on Monday shows.
Chinese imports of Australian coal have also begun to tick up, after an informal ban was lifted earlier in 2023, according to the report.
Australia – the world’s second-biggest coal exporter – has long been considered a laggard on climate issues. The Labor government under Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has attempted to rebrand the nation as a critical mineral and clean energy “superpower”, but is also continuing to support growth of the coal and gas sectors.
Exports of thermal coal, the single biggest cause of climate change, will see the most volume growth, rising 7.3 per cent in 2023, the report shows. Shipments of metallurgical coal will climb 2.6 per cent. However, the value of those exports is projected to drop sharply as coal prices fall.
Overseas sales of liquefied natural gas (LNG), a less pollutive fossil fuel that is Australia’s third-biggest export, will fall over the year ending in June 2024, the report found.
Exports of commodities used in the energy transition, including lithium, copper and nickel, will enjoy some of the biggest percentage growth – lithium exports will increase between 20 per cent and 30 per cent for each of the next three fiscal years. Still, these will remain meagre earners next to the top three bulk exports of iron ore, coal and LNG.
Overall, Australia’s energy and mineral exports brought in an estimated A$460 billion (S$414 billion) – a record high – in the 2022-23 fiscal year that ended on Friday, thanks to the commodity price boom unleashed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. That figure will drop sharply in coming years, according to the report.
Meanwhile, shipments of iron ore – Australia’s biggest export earner – are expected to grow steadily over the next three years as BHP Group and Rio Tinto Group ramp up production from their giant mines in Western Australia. BLOOMBERG
