ST Deep Dive: A warning on South Korean strategy, global food insecurities
Here's a round-up of recent commentaries and more by think-tanks in the region and elsewhere that could be of interest to those who watch Asia.
Sign up now: Get ST's newsletters delivered to your inbox
Careful with Kim
Under President Yoon Suk-yeol, South Korea has reinvigorated military planning for pre-emptive and retaliatory strikes against the North Korean leadership under the so-called Kill Chain, and Korean Massive Punishment and Retaliation (KMPR) strategies, respectively.
Under the latter concept, South Korea would use conventional missiles to target North Korea’s leadership – including Mr Kim Jong Un.
These strategies were conceived during a time when the North’s nuclear capabilities were relatively more modest and the logic of deterrence by punishment more compelling.
However, as North Korea continues to expand its nuclear and missile capabilities, the escalation risks of the KMPR strategy and its overt threats to Mr Kim’s life now significantly outweigh the benefits, argues Mr Ankit Panda, Stanton Senior Fellow in the Nuclear Policy Programme at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Continued signalling around decapitation intentions invites North Korea to take especially dangerous steps as it modernises its nuclear forces and posture, he warns.
China-India-Taiwan
China has been applying diplomatic pressure on India to reaffirm its “one-China” policy in the aftermath of United States House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, and the announcement that the next US-India military wargames will be held close to the contested Sino-Indian Himalayan boundary.
As India’s boundary tensions with China persist, New Delhi’s navigation between the logic of expanding ties with Taipei and the dangers of further deterioration of bilateral relations with Beijing has become more challenging, says Professor C. Raja Mohan, visiting research professor at the Institute of South Asian Studies.
At a regular press briefing on Aug 12, an Indian Foreign Ministry spokesman was asked by a Xinhua correspondent on New Delhi’s approach to the one-China principle. The spokesman declared that “India’s relevant policies are well known and consistent. They do not require reiteration”.
Has India’s approach to the territorial integrity and sovereignty of China changed?
The answer is both yes and no, says Prof Mohan.
Behind India’s current refusal to reaffirm the one-China policy is the nuanced evolution of India’s position.
White Paper
After a series of military exercises to protest against Mrs Pelosi’s visit to Taipei, China has released a White Paper to “reiterate” its stance on Taiwan in the “new era”.
The document is not only the first White Paper on Taiwan since President Xi Jinping assumed power, delivered amid the most dangerous moment in cross-strait relations in recent decades, but also significantly departs from the strategy that Beijing had defined in the previous two papers, says China researcher Cherry Hitkari in a note for the Lowy Institute.
Tellingly, she says, the White Paper emphasises the urgency of resolving the issue by stating “we should not allow this problem to be passed down from one generation to the next”.
Ms Hitkari says another striking feature of the 2022 White Paper is the redefined “one country, two systems” formula previously used as a phrase to imply special status.
The paper explicitly claims that two systems are “subordinate to and derived from one country” thus emboldening Beijing while leaving little space for the Taiwanese authorities to manoeuvre.
Mall of fame
Citayam Fashion Week, a term for spontaneous, outdoor gatherings of Indonesian youth in which they perform fashion shows, has caught the attention of the vast nation.
President Joko Widodo has said that “as long as it is positive, I don’t think there is a problem with that. Let’s not make a big deal out of it. We support positive activities as long as they don’t violate the rules”.
In a note for the Lowy Interpreter, Dr Muhammad Ersan Pamungkas, a professional linguist at the Cabinet Secretariat, says it all began when groups of teenagers from the village of Citayam in Bogor regency started flocking to buzz-filled Sudirman Street in Jakarta.
The phenomenon went viral on Indonesian social media, with people arguing that the teenage gatherings were a sign that young people craved open spaces to hang out and mingle.
The popularity of Citayam Fashion Week, however, extends beyond this simple human desire to be outdoors, says Dr Muhammad Ersan.
It has also been triggered by the fact that fame seems to be the dream of many young Indonesians these days.
War and food
Conflict has long been identified as a significant driver of food insecurity and hunger within nations. It impacts both food availability and accessibility since farmers are driven away from fields and farms, agricultural assets and food stock are damaged, and logistics and supply chains are disrupted.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, however, has impacted other countries as well. Ukraine and Russia are “among the most important producers of agricultural commodities in the world”, contributing 29 per cent of global wheat exports and 62 per cent of sunflower oil.
Furthermore, Russia and Belarus contribute 20 per cent of global fertiliser exports. The lack of access to affordable fertilisers reduces yields and, in turn, food production.
The United Nations Global Crisis Response Group has projected 94 countries to be impacted by food, energy or finance concerns due to the war in Ukraine. Three-quarters of the 1.6 billion people living in these countries are likely to stand exposed to the three challenges at the same time, thus creating a perfect storm of cost-of-living crisis.
The contagion in food insecurity amid the war in Ukraine coincides with a phase of higher energy and food prices amid the pandemic.
The war comes in a period of higher food prices and reduced fiscal budgets, owing to previous bouts with Covid-19. Governments are thus less capable of providing income support to mitigate the impact of rising food prices, says a paper published by the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.
A further risk is that hunger can raise the potential for more social instability driven by poorer segments of society with limited food access, especially should this coincide with climate disruptions in importing countries.
