KUALA LUMPUR (THE STAR/ASIA NEWS NETWORK) -It is fast and furious politicking as the May 18 Parliament meeting approaches. With the conditional movement control order (MCO), some politicians have stopped practising political distancing.

On Wednesday (May 6), a letter, from Semporna MP Shafie Apdal to the Dewan Rakyat Speaker seeking a motion of confidence in former prime minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad, was leaked.

The next day, another letter to the Speaker was disclosed.

Langkawi MP, Dr Mahathir, requested Tan Sri Mohamad Ariff Md Yusof to move a no-confidence motion against his successor, Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin.

(Note the new normal in Malaysian politics: Bersatu chairman, Dr Mahathir, trying to overthrow the Bersatu president, Mr Muhyiddin.)

The letters confirmed that the pressure from the opposition for a two-week Parliament meeting was a trap.

On April 17, Dewan Rakyat secretary Riduan Rahmat issued a notice to MPs for a one-day sitting on May 18. He also noted that the sitting was for the official opening of Parliament by the King with no motions accepted or raised.

Priority, Mr Riduan added, would be given to government matters related to Covid-19.

It is unlikely there'll be any confidence or no-confidence motion during the one-day Parliament sitting which is Mr Muhyiddin's first as prime minister.

The Dewan Rakyat Speaker has rejected Parti Warisan Sabah president and Sabah chief minister Shafie's proposed motion of confidence for Dr Mahathir.

But he has accepted Dr Mahathir's motion of no confidence against Tan Sri Muhyiddin which will be brought forward to the coming meeting.

If there was a vote of no confidence, how many MPs would the Prime Minister have? Let's do the math.

A source in the Dewan Rakyat revealed that the seating arrangement is: ruling party - 113 MPs, opposition - 107 MPs and two independents.

The independents are Selangau MP Baru Bian and Bukit Gantang MP Syed Abu Hussin Hafiz Syed Abdul Fasal.

Mr Baru won the seat in Sarawak under the PKR ticket but quit the party when the Pakatan Harapan government collapsed. Syed Abu Hussin Hafiz captured the constituency in Perak under Barisan Nasional but ditched Umno months after GE14 to be an independent.

Mr Baru was with Team Azmin (International Trade and Industry Minister Azmin Ali who was sacked as PKR deputy president) but supported Dr Mahathir to remain as PM against Mr Muhyiddin in March.

Under the Perikatan Nasional (PN) government, Syed Abu Hussin Hafiz was recently appointed as Fisheries Development Authority of Malaysia chairman.

Factoring their political allegiance (Baru with the opposition and Syed Abu Hussin Hafiz with the government), the PN government has 114 MPs and opposition 108 MPs. There are 222 MPs in the Dewan Rakyat.

Let's break down which party or who is with the ruling coalition and the opposition.

PN: Umno 39, Team Muhyiddin (32 Bersatu MPs), Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS) 18, Gabungan Parti Sarawak 18, MCA two, MIC one, Parti Bersatu Sabah one, STAR Sabah one, Parti Bersatu Rakyat Sabah one and Syed Abu Hussin Hafiz = 114 MPs.

Opposition: Democratic Action Party (DAP) 42, Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) 39, Amanah 11, Parti Warisan Sabah nine, Team Mahathir (four MPs), Upko one, Parti Bersatu Sarawak one and Baru = 108 MPs.

But, we don't know what's in the politician's mind. For example, a Bersatu MP's body might be with Team Muhyiddin but his soul with Team Mahathir.

Out of the 36 Bersatu MPs, sources say the four with Team Mahathir include Dr Mahathir's son and party deputy president Mukhriz Mahathir, party youth chief Syed Saddiq Syed Abdul Rahman and Kubang Pasu MP Amiruddin Hamzah.

But, political analyst Dr Mazlan Ali of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia believes Dr Mahathir has more Bersatu MPs - "six or seven" - with him. He said this means that the number of MPs that the opposition has could be higher.

"It can be that it has 112 MPs and the government 110 MPs, " he said.

The big question on the May 18 Parliament meeting is how many of the Bersatu MPs will be sitting with Dr Mahathir on the opposition bench.

Universiti Sains Malaysia political analyst Sivamurugan Pandian pointed out that only during the sitting we would know who is with who from their seats.

"I assume PN passed the minimum (112). The challenge is - PN is not a registered coalition. Will, the seating in the house, be based on their party, and that will again put all of us in the dark! What is the exact number even though they will be seated as government and opposition front?" he said.

Some MPs like to "ke sini, ke sana" (moving here and there) in their party affiliation.

A day before the MCO was announced, an MP with PN was supposed to make a big announcement.

However, it was cancelled as a huge gathering was discouraged to stop the spread of Covid-19. Once the conditional MCO was lifted, he might make a move.

There's also talk that a fickle government MP might take a leap of faith. There are also opposition MPs who might join the ruling coalition "demi rakyat" (for the sake of the people).

James Chin, who is director of the Asia Institute, University of Tasmania, Australia, doesn't think the opposition has the numbers to bring down the Muhyiddin government.

"At the minimum, it has 80 MPs. The problem is the situation is still very fluid, " he said.

Is the opposition front united?

Dr Mazlan thinks it is.

He said the fact that four party leaders - Bersatu chairman Mahathir, Warisan president Shafie, PKR president Anwar Ibrahim and DAP secretary-general Lim Guan Eng - signed a statement urging the government to allow Parliament to sit for two weeks since the MCO has been relaxed showed that they were united.

"It showed that even though Shafie is under pressure as his Sabah government is now in the opposition, he is still with Dr Mahathir. It also shows that Mahathir is still willing to accept PH. And Anwar is still willing to accept Dr Mahathir. It shows that they have the resolve to form a new government again, " he said.

I was told that we can't lump the 108 MPs under a united opposition front. There's confusion on who the opposition wants as Prime Minister. Is it Dr Mahathir or Mr Anwar?

Mr Shafie sought a motion of confidence on whether Dr Mahathir has the majority support from the MPs. But PH has named Mr Anwar as opposition leader.

To make sure the non-PH opposition leaders know that Mr Anwar was PH's pick for the opposition leader, PH secretary-general Saifuddin Nasution Ismail of PKR issued a statement that Dr Mahathir and Mr Shafie have been informed of the decision.

Will the real opposition PM-in-waiting please stand up?

The writer is a columnist with the paper. The Star is a member of The Straits Times media partner Asia News Network, an alliance of 24 news media entities.