Race is on to rearm eastern front that could decide Ukraine war

KYIV (BLOOMBERG) - As Russia refocuses its invasion of Ukraine on the east, recognition is growing in Kyiv and allied capitals that the window to prevent the nation's partition and a long war of attrition may be narrow.

The recent withdrawal of Russian troops from around Kyiv represents a defeat, after Ukraine's military stalled their advance with a combination of urban warfare and attacks on supply lines.

Yet to roll back, or even contain a grinding advance by reinforced Russian units across the eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions would mean taking the fight to open battlefields, requiring more than just the light anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles the US and Europe have supplied so far.

"Planes, shore-to-vessel missiles, personnel armoured vehicles, heavy air-defence systems," Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said before meeting with North Atlantic Treaty Organisation counterparts in Brussels on Thursday (April 7), when asked what he was requesting.

Speaking after the meeting, he predicted that the coming battle for the east would be reminiscent of World War II, involving large-scale operations and thousands of tanks and artillery pieces.

"Either you help us now - and I'm speaking about days not weeks - or your help will come too late and many people will die," Mr Kuleba said. He didn't doubt Ukraine would receive the arms it needs, he said, but "the question is the timeline."

Six weeks after Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his invasion of neighbouring Ukraine, the war is entering a new phase, one that may allow Ukraine just weeks to procure and deploy those weapons.

That's how long it's likely to take Russia to reconstitute units for a major assault in the east, adding what areas of the Donbass region remain in Ukrainian hands to a swathe of territory it already holds.

With that achieved, Russian forces could dig in for a long and destabilising war to force an eventual settlement, imposing a heavy toll on Ukraine, as well as steep costs for Europe's economy and for Russia itself.

"Allies should do more and are ready to do more to provide more equipment, and they realise and recognise the urgency," Nato Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said after Thursday's meeting. "This war may last for weeks, but also months and possibly also for years."

The question of whether the war in Ukraine can be brought to an end quickly or develops into a years-long conflict such as in Syria - ongoing since 2011 - is now seen as central, according to a Western official familiar with discussions among Nato allies.

The exposure of alleged Russian war crimes against civilians in reclaimed towns has given fresh impetus to US, Britain and European Union sanctions against Russia.

The EU on Thursday agreed to ban imports of Russian coal, and discussions of potential oil and natural gas embargoes are likely to follow.

Sanctions have had no discernible impact on Putin's invasion plans to date, so the focus is growing on weapons capable of evening the balance on the ground in what British Armed Forces Minister James Heappey described in a statement on Thursday as "this next phase of the conflict".

Mr Heappey had just hosted a group of senior Ukrainian officers, led by Deputy Defence Minister Volodymyr Havrylov, for demonstrations of "a range of equipment and options for further military support, including defensive missile systems and protected mobility vehicles", according to the statement.

Nato has refused to send in troops to Ukraine or supply it with aircraft citing the risk of sparking a wider conflict with Russia. Neither will it enforce a no-fly zone as requested repeatedly by President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Initial reluctance on the part of Nato allies to send larger offensive weaponry for the same reasons is subsiding, albeit too slowly from Ukraine's point of view.

Mr Kuleba singled out Germany, welcoming Berlin's seismic shift to provide arms at all, but criticising its slow pace.

"While Berlin has time, Kyiv doesn't," he said.

Germany had offered Ukraine 100 Marder tanks, but that deal now appears in doubt as they have been standing out in the rain so long they would need months of repair, according to a German official.

Britain already said it was adding its Starstreak anti-aircraft system to the 3,615 light anti-tank weapons, known as NLAWs, it has sent to Ukraine. The Times of London this week reported that Britain was also deciding between two armoured patrol vehicle models - the Mastiff and Jackal - to send.

Australia said on April 1 it would be delivering its Bushmaster armoured personnel carriers to Ukraine, after Mr Zelensky requested them specifically. The same day, the US said it would help countries that have Soviet-design tanks familiar to Ukraine's military transfer them to Kyiv.

The Czech Republic's public broadcaster this week showed footage of five T-72 tanks and five armoured vehicles loaded on a train, saying it was a delivery to Ukraine agreed with Nato allies.

Defence Minister Jana Cernochova confirmed in a tweet that the Czechs were making deliveries, but said she wouldn't help Russia by identifying them.

Washington is also sending Ukraine Switchblade armed drones, as well as fresh supplies of Javelin anti-tank missiles for use on the eastern front once the anticipated Russian assault begins, according to US officials.

The quantities of heavy weaponry are for now small and some equipment takes months of training to operate.

Whether enough can be deployed to the Donbass front in time to take on the expected Russian onslaught is unclear.

High intensity conflict runs through ammunition and equipment fast, and Ukraine's forces will face their own logistical challenges as Russia targets fuel and munitions depots in long range missile strikes.

Much will depend, too, on the Russian ability to reconstitute and concentrate forces that have taken a beating in the North.

To succeed, Ukraine will need not just tanks, but also good intelligence, more of the advanced light weaponry it has used to such effect and ample territorial forces to prevent the encirclement from behind of their front line forces, Mr Mark Hertling, a former commander of the US Army in Europe, said in a Twitter thread.

"Donbass will be a battle of attrition," he said.