US, Iran may resume talks this week despite port blockade

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ISLAMABAD/WASHINGTON/DUBAI – Talks to end the Iran war could resume in Pakistan over the next two days, US President Donald Trump said on April 14, after the collapse of weekend negotiations prompted Washington to impose a blockade on Iranian ports.

Officials from Pakistan, Iran and the Gulf also said negotiating teams from the US and Iran could return to Pakistan later this week, though one senior Iranian source said no date had been set.

Mr Trump was quoted by the New York Post as saying: “You should stay there, really, because something could be happening over the next two days, and we’re more inclined to go there.”

Later on April 14, at an event in Georgia, US Vice-President J.D. Vance said Mr Trump wanted to make a “grand bargain” with Iran, but there was a lot of mistrust between the two countries.

“You are not going to solve that problem overnight,” Mr Vance said.

While the US blockade drew angry rhetoric from Tehran, signs that diplomatic engagement might continue helped calm oil markets, pushing benchmark prices below US$100 on April 14.

Iran has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial global waterway for oil and gas transport, since the war began on Feb 28.

Roughly 5,000 people have died in the hostilities.

Talks in Islamabad last weekend did not yield an agreement, raising doubts over the survival of a two-week ceasefire that still has a week to run.

Iran’s nuclear ambitions were a key sticking point. The US had proposed a 20-year suspension of all nuclear activity by Iran, while Tehran had suggested a halt of three to five years, according to sources familiar with the proposals.

The US has also pressed for any enriched nuclear material to be removed from Iran.

One source involved in the negotiations in Pakistan said backchannel talks since the weekend had made progress in narrowing that gap, bringing the two sides closer to a deal that could be put forward at a new round of talks.

It was unclear what kind of nuclear deal could be quickly agreed by the US and Iran, given the complexity of the 2015 nuclear deal between Tehran and world powers that Mr Trump withdrew from in 2018, and the likely need for monitoring and verification by the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Iran also wants international sanctions removed, which the US cannot pledge by itself.

IMF cuts growth outlook

US Central Command said no ships made it past its blockade of Iranian ports in the first 24 hours it was in place, while six merchant vessels turned back.

CENTCOM said more than a dozen US warships were involved in the blockade, which applies only to ships going to or from Iran.

However, shipping data showed the blockade had made little difference to Strait of Hormuz traffic on April 14, with at least eight ships crossing the waterway.

The war has clouded the outlook for global energy security and the supply of goods that rely on petroleum.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its growth outlook and said the global economy would teeter on the brink of recession if the conflict worsens and oil remains above US$100 per barrel into 2027.

The International Energy Agency, meanwhile, lowered its forecasts for global oil supply and demand growth.

US’ NATO allies, including Britain and France, said they would not be drawn into the conflict by taking part in the blockade, although they have offered to help safeguard the strait once an agreement is in place.

China, the main buyer of Iranian oil, said the US blockade was “dangerous and irresponsible” and would only aggravate tensions.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent criticised China for hoarding oil during the war.

Analysts say oil prices are likely to remain elevated for weeks after the strait is fully reopened, due to backlogs, damaged infrastructure and heightened uncertainty.

Israel-Lebanon talks conclude

Further complicating prospects for peace, Israel has continued targeting Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Israel and the US say that campaign is not covered by the ceasefire, while Iran has insisted that it is.

In Washington, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio hosted a meeting between envoys from Israel and Lebanon, which the State Department described as the first major high-level engagement between the two countries since 1993.

Lebanon sought a ceasefire to end Israeli strikes that have killed more than 2,000 people and forced 1.2 million from their homes, while Israel was pressing for Beirut to disarm Hezbollah.

The US State Department said afterwards that the two sides agreed to continue their talks.

Israel’s Ambassador to the US said he was hopeful the Lebanese government wanted to reduce Hezbollah’s influence, while Lebanon’s Ambassador to the US said in a statement that the meeting was “constructive” and that the date and location of the next meeting would be announced in due course.

Lebanon’s government sought the negotiations despite objections from Hezbollah.

With the war unpopular at home, where rising energy prices are causing political blowback, Mr Trump paused the US-Israeli bombing campaign last week after threatening to destroy Iran’s “whole civilisation” unless it reopened the strait.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted from April 10 to 12, after the ceasefire was announced, showed that 35 per cent of Americans approve of US strikes against Iran, down from 37 per cent a week earlier.

The ceasefire has largely held over its first week despite sharp rhetoric from both sides. REUTERS