ASEAN hopes to see progress on peace plan by Myanmar

BANGKOK – ASEAN hopes to see demonstrable progress from Myanmar on the Five-Point Consensus (5PC) peace plan, such as the release of all political detainees including Aung San Suu Kyi, Singapore Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan said on July 12.

“The most important point was that we all reaffirmed the central importance of the Five Point Consensus – it was and it remains valid. The next point is that all of us want to see demonstrable progress,” he told the Singapore media after an informal meeting between ASEAN foreign ministers and their Myanmar counterpart in Bangkok.

It was the first in-person meeting between the ASEAN foreign ministers and Myanmar’s top diplomat since the 2021 coup in Myanmar.

Balakrishnan also mentioned that ASEAN foreign ministers would like to see a permanent end to violence in Myanmar and for ASEAN to be able to deliver humanitarian aid across the country even in places not controlled by the Myanmar regime, which are points mentioned in the peace plan.

“Let’s hope that we will see some response and some progress in the next few months,” he added.

In a statement on July 12, Singapore’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said: “Myanmar remains an integral part of ASEAN, and Singapore hopes to see a peaceful, stable and prosperous Myanmar.

“Singapore is disappointed with the limited progress made in the implementation of the ASEAN Five-Point Consensus and stressed the importance of constructive dialogue amongst all of Myanmar’s key stakeholders to achieve a peaceful and durable resolution of the crisis.”

At a joint press conference, the Thai and Philippine foreign ministers also stressed that Myanmar needs to show progress on the peace plan before ASEAN would consider the next step in engaging with Myanmar.

Asked about former Myanmar leader Suu Kyi, Philippine Foreign Secretary Ma. Theresa Lazaro said the detained state counsellor remains in “good health” and has access to healthcare.

“The premise of how he said it is that she’s a relative, she’s a sister and therefore we will take care of her,” said Lazaro, referring to comments from Myanmar Foreign Minister Tin Maung Swe.

Calls have grown for the 81-year-old to be released, or for access to her to be given. But these have been ignored or turned down, including a recent request from ASEAN member states to meet her.

At the press conference, the Philippine and Thai foreign ministers said the July 12 meeting marked the initial step of engagement with Myanmar.

Noting that the peace plan remains the main reference point for ASEAN, Thailand Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow said: “In the end, we have to engage, we have to have dialogue and we are not abandoning our position.”

Since the Myanmar putsch, at least 100,000 people have died, according to Armed Conflict Location & Event Data, an independent global conflict monitor.

According to a human rights organisation based in Thailand, Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, about 22,400 Myanmar civilians remain detained since the coup.

Lazaro, who is also ASEAN special envoy to Myanmar, said she plans to lead a humanitarian mission to the country in the second half of the year.

All of the 11-member grouping ministers attended the meeting except for Malaysia, which was represented by a senior official, and Cambodia, which did not send any representatives.

In April, junta chief Min Aung Hlaing became Myanmar’s president after holding a carefully managed election, which many described as fraudulent. He later appointed Tin Maung Swe as foreign minister.

But analysts The Straits Times spoke to feel that ASEAN has severely dented its remaining credibility by having Tin Maung Swe at the meeting.

“ASEAN has made its own position more difficult by offering symbolic access before obtaining meaningful compliance,” said Phyo Win Latt, an independent Myanmar analyst.

“Once recognition begins to flow without concessions, ASEAN’s leverage diminishes. The regime may conclude that time is working in its favour and that regional fatigue will eventually secure its full return,” he added.

ASEAN has not set any deadlines for Myanmar to show that it has made positive progress in tackling the political crisis. But the foreign ministers will likely follow up on the discussions on July 12 when they meet again formally in Manila from July 20 to 24.

Members of Parliament in Myanmar, however, have rejected the peace plan in its entirety in a motion on July 9, calling it irrelevant.

Zin Mar Aung, foreign minister of Myanmar’s National Unity Government, which was formed after the Myanmar regime ousted Suu Kyi’s elected government in the 2021 coup, said she did not expect the July 12 meeting to “produce any meaningful breakthrough”.

“If ASEAN or individual member states continue engaging stakeholders separately and without equal political weight, they risk reinforcing the junta’s divide-and-rule strategy rather than creating the conditions for an inclusive solution,” she told ST in an exclusive statement.

“If the consensus collapses without a credible alternative, it will pave the way for a ‘might makes right’ environment in the region,” said Naing Min Khant, a researcher at Institute for Strategy and Policy – Myanmar, a local think-tank.

Another analyst is not optimistic that the Myanmar regime will indeed implement the peace plan to its fullest as it has failed to do so over the last five years.

“At the minimum, Myanmar should not be dismissing the 5PC. This is a cause of great concern. And there should be consequences if they do,” said Fuadi Pitsuwan, political scientist at Thammasat University.

Other observers feel the inclusion of the Myanmar foreign minister shows ASEAN capitulating and has significantly diluted what little leverage it has over Myanmar.

“ASEAN is signalling that its political bans are flexible and its red lines are porous,” says Yuyun Wahyuningrum, an ASEAN policy expert.

“It reinforces the critique that ASEAN prioritises institutional optics over the actual protection of human rights and civilian lives,” said Yuyun, who is also former Indonesian representative to ASEAN Intergovernmental Commission on Human Rights (AICHR).

Many are concerned that the Myanmar foreign minister’s presence in the ASEAN talks may now set the precedent and accelerate the country’s increased participation at formal ministerial meetings and Min Aung Hlaing’s return to the leaders’ summits.

“Diplomatic normalisation rarely occurs through one dramatic decision. It advances through a succession of exceptions that gradually become the new rule,” said Phyo Win Latt.

Lazaro argued that it was vital to have the Myanmar minister involved in the talks after five years of exclusion. “It can’t be done in one stroke. It’s evolving and I think all of these engagements are very important,” she said.

Thailand’s Sihasak said ASEAN is also engaging other stakeholders in Myanmar. “It’s not just one-sided. We want to be even-handed,” he said.