TAIPEI – A single point from the Biden-Xi meeting has dominated headlines in Taiwan: Chinese President Xi Jinping’s apparent denial of plans to invade the island in the near future.

During the four-hour meeting between Mr Xi and United States President Joe Biden on Nov 15 outside of San Francisco, the two leaders had a substantial discussion on Taiwan – which Mr Xi described as the biggest, most dangerous issue facing the two superpowers.

According to a senior US official, the Chinese leader rejected American reports that Beijing was planning for military action against Taiwan in 2027 or 2035. 

“He basically said there are no such plans, and that no one had informed him about them,” the official told reporters, adding that Mr Xi had displayed a hint of irritation in his remarks. 

Taiwanese TV outlets covered the news extensively, featuring looks of surprise and disbelief from members of the public in street interviews. On Facebook, social media users said it was difficult to trust Mr Xi’s comments given Beijing’s military aggression towards the island.

Analysts agreed it was not time to let one’s guard down, despite China’s ostensible assurances.

Distinguished Professor Kou Chien-wen, who teaches political science at Taiwan’s National Chengchi University, said the possibility of China attacking Taiwan still exists.

“We cannot act like there’s no risk any more,” he added. 

National Taiwan University political scientist Chen Shih-min believes Mr Xi made the comments as part of an overall milder tone taken throughout the meeting with his US counterpart.

“China is facing significant economic challenges and really needs to stabilise US-China ties to reassure international investors that it is safe to invest there,” he said.

“Given how Taiwan is the biggest flashpoint in the US-China rivalry, he does not wish to further escalate tensions in the Taiwan Strait. But saying that he will not attack Taiwan by 2027 does not mean that he no longer intends to take Taiwan at all.”

Taiwan faces the constant threat of an invasion by China, which claims sovereignty over the territory that it insists must be “reunified” with the mainland one day. 

There had been concern among some observers about the possibility of an attack in the near term, given Beijing’s heightened military aggression towards the island in recent times.

Over the past three years, Chinese warships and warplanes have crossed the Taiwan Strait separating China and Taiwan almost daily. Just a day after the Biden-Xi meeting, Beijing sent 12 aircraft and five vessels around the island. 

China also staged massive war games following Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen’s meetings with US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in April 2023 and his predecessor Nancy Pelosi in August 2022.

“The fact that China could stage unprecedented military drills immediately after Pelosi’s visit shows that its military is prepared and can launch such plans at any moment,” Prof Kou said.

In any case, he believed that people were making too much out of 2027 and 2035 as supposed deadlines for a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan. 

These years have been singled out partly because Mr Xi has instructed China’s armed forces, the People’s Liberation Army, to have the capability to fight and win a regional conflict by 2027. By 2035, it should be a “world-class” military power. 

“If Taiwan declares independence in 2026, would Xi wait until 2027 to launch an attack?” Prof Kou said. Beijing views de jure independence as a red line.

He added that China’s preference has always been to achieve peaceful reunification with the island, but that it would not rule out the use of force. “That has not changed,” he said. 

According to a readout from China’s Foreign Ministry, Mr Xi told Mr Biden during their meeting that “China will realise reunification, and this is unstoppable”. 

Dr Tseng Chien-yuan, chairman of the Taipei-based think-tank New School For Democracy, noted that Taiwan should also remain vigilant due to China’s slew of non-military pressures against the island. 

It is good to hear Mr Xi deny reports of an imminent attack, but Taiwan cannot relax because of this, he said. “Besides war, there are plenty of other ways for China to continue heaping pressure on Taiwan, including economic sanctions,” he said. 

China has periodically locked Taiwanese products out of the lucrative Chinese market for political reasons.

One day after Mrs Pelosi landed in Taipei, for example, the Chinese Customs suspended imports of citrus fruits and certain fish products from Taiwan, citing concerns over pesticides and Covid-19. The move left pomelo farmers scrambling to salvage unsold fruits by transforming them into pomelo jam and pomelo essential oil.

Still, experts acknowledged that both China and the US had made attempts during the Biden-Xi meeting to ease tensions over Taiwan, and that can only be a good sign. 

“Xi reportedly said that there are no plans to take military action on Taiwan in 2027 and 2035, while Biden said the US’ ‘one China’ policy has not changed,” said Ms Amanda Hsiao, a Taipei-based senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, a non-governmental organisation.

“This is a positive step forward in the right direction, but more would have to be done for de-escalation to actually occur. In particular, China should roll back its military activities around Taiwan, and the US could offer clearer elaboration of what its ‘one China’ policy consists of.”