Will Trump join in Israel’s push for Iran’s total surrender?

LONDON – A week since Israel launched its strikes on Iran, all eyes are now focused on whether the US will join the war by administering the decisive blow to Iran’s nuclear capabilities.

President Donald Trump is enjoying the suspense he has created around his future actions.

“I may do it. I may not do it. Nobody knows what I am going to do,” he

told journalists on June 18

as he supervised the planting of a pair of massive flagpoles on the White House lawn in Washington.

At least in theory, there is still some scope for diplomacy to bring the current fighting to a halt. Iranian officials are darting in and out of Oman, the neighbouring Gulf state most involved in mediating between Iran and the United States.

Yet, it is clear that all the key protagonists in this conflict – Israel, Iran and the US – are now being forced to take far-reaching decisions under significant time constraints.

It is equally clear that the Americans and Israelis are no longer aiming just to reduce Iran’s nuclear and broader military capabilities; they seek Iran’s total surrender.

The chances of a US intervention in the conflict remain very high.

As he ordered his

first strikes on Iran on June 13

, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was still unsure of the extent and duration of the US support for Israel’s operations.

Although the Israeli leader had gained Washington’s tacit approval for the action, Mr Trump still appeared to believe that a limited Israeli attack would be followed by Iran’s swift return to

diplomatic negotiations with the US

, which have been held on and off since April.

That was why officials in Washington were initially at pains to describe Israel’s offensive as “unilateral action”, in which the US was not and supposedly will not be involved in.

That was also why Israeli military commanders were under orders to inflict as much damage as possible on Iran, and as quickly as possible, before the US President made any calls for a ceasefire.

The US position appears to have changed radically on June 16, as Mr Trump faced the handful of leaders of the Group of Seven – the world’s most industrialised nations – at a summit in Canada.

He startled his summit counterparts by

refusing to apply any brakes on Israel

.

French President Emmanuel Macron, who claimed that the US was still looking for a ceasefire, was promptly dismissed by Mr Trump as just a “publicity-seeking” politician.

“Whether purposely or not, Emmanuel always gets it wrong,” Mr Trump wrote on June 17 in his Truth Social post, published while he was still on the plane on his way back to Washington.

Since then, US officials have increasingly given the impression that only the manner and timing of American intervention in the war are now in question.

It is unclear what caused the shift in Mr Trump’s position. Still, the most plausible explanation is that he is impressed by the early success of the Israeli operation and wants to portray himself as the real architect of a new Middle East.

He presents himself as part of the Israeli operation.

“We now have complete and total control of the skies over Iran,” he claimed in one of his social media postings.

The White House has released an extensive list of quotes from Mr Trump going back more than a decade, documenting his opposition to Iran’s nuclear programme. This is designed to present the war as an example of what happens to those who defy his wishes.

He is keen to maintain strategic ambiguity about his next moves. But everything points to an imminent US military intervention.

First, there is the massive US military build-up. An aircraft carrier strike group led by the USS Nimitz has departed the South China Sea and is en route to the Middle East, where it will meet the USS Carl Vinson strike group, which is already in the Gulf region.

Tellingly, other ships belonging to the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet stationed in the Gulf have left their port in Bahrain and dispersed throughout Gulf waters, a move intended both to reduce Iran’s ability to hit back at the US fleet but also offer the US the ability to escort oil tankers through the Gulf, should the war expand.

Meanwhile, scores of US Air Force midair-refuelling tankers have arrived in Britain and several other US bases in Europe.

These tankers will be crucial for extending the reach of America’s B-2 stealth bombers, which are equipped to carry the 13,600kg GBU-57 – the “bunker buster” bomb allegedly capable of penetrating Iran’s critical nuclear site at Fordow, dug deep inside a mountain.

Although there is plenty of talk about an impending Israeli commando operation on Fordow and Israel’s air force has repeatedly bombed the entrances of this Iranian nuclear installation, the consensus remains that only the Americans are capable of destroying it.

Equally telling is Mr Trump’s determination to silence critics within his Make America Great Again movement, who are

unhappy with the prospect of a new US military entanglement

.

Mr Tucker Carlson, the influential political commentator, was dismissed by Mr Trump as “kooky” after he dared oppose the US leader and subsequently withdrew his criticism.

Vice-President J.D. Vance, known as the leader of the non-interventionist camp, is also falling in line. The President, he claimed, “may decide he needs to take further action to end Iranian enrichment”.

Meanwhile, time is running short for everyone.

Although Israeli defences continue to intercept the bulk of Iranian missiles fired at Israel’s cities, the rate of such interceptions is declining.

An estimated 30 per cent of Iran’s missiles are now getting through, perhaps an indication that Israel may be running low on stocks of its Arrow-3 interceptors.

A US entry into the war will provide Israel with a considerable boost.

Meanwhile, Iran has no chance of regaining control of its airspace. It possesses a dwindling number of missiles, probably not more than a quarter of the 2,000 ballistic missiles it originally had.

It also faces grim choices. Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, may be moving from bunker to bunker. Most of his military and intelligence advisers were

killed in Israeli air strikes

or targeted assassinations.

The Iranians desperately need a ceasefire to save their regime, but dare not opt for the only diplomatic option now on offer: A humiliating and wholesale surrender of their nuclear capability.

Although Mr Trump still enjoys keeping everyone guessing about what he may do, he also knows that keeping the US military on high alert for too long costs a great deal of money and brings diminishing political returns.