Omicron sub-variant XBB.1.5 could be dominant Covid-19 strain in Europe soon, says health agency

STOCKHOLM - Omicron sub-variant XBB.1.5, which now accounts for a quarter of US Covid-19 cases, could become the dominant strain in Europe within a few months, the European Union’s disease agency said on Friday.

The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) said that mathematical modelling suggested the sub-variant, which is the most transmissible to date, could become the dominant variant in the EU “after one to two months, given the current low proportions reported in the EU/EEA and its estimated growth rate”. EEA is the European Economic Area comprising the EU and Iceland, Lichtenstein, and Norway.

For the general population, the agency said the risk associated with the variant was estimated to be low. However, the “risk is moderate to high for vulnerable individuals such as the elderly and non-vaccinated and immunocompromised people”.

The agency also noted that “several knowledge gaps” existed, meaning the assessment was subject to change in the light of more evidence.

While the sub-variant now accounts for more than 27 per cent of infections in the United States, XBB.1.5 was still responsible for fewer than 2.5 per cent of Covid-19 cases in the EU in the last weeks of 2022, according to the ECDC.

“There are currently no signals that the infection severity of XBB.1.5 is different to that of previously circulating Omicron sub-lineages,” the agency said.

Thirty-eight countries have reported XBB.1.5 cases.

Of those, 82 per cent are in the US, 8 per cent in Britain and 2 per cent in Denmark, the World Health Organisation said in a rapid risk assessment on Wednesday.

According to virologists, the sub-variant is very similar to its predecessor, XBB.1, but has an additional mutation to its spike protein – the key that allows the virus into the body’s cells. AFP