‘Beautiful bracket’ sees defending champions Argentina enjoy clear path to World Cup semi-finals

SINGAPORE – As the fog of uncertainty surrounding the World Cup knockout stages dissipated on June 27 when the last 32 was confirmed, world No. 1 Argentina appear to have quite a clear path to at least the semi-finals.

Unlike the other contenders, the defending champions are not projected to meet any top-10 teams until the last four.

Former Venezuela forward Alejandro Moreno said on ESPN UK: “It’s a beautiful bracket for Argentina. They are not seeing any of the big boys until they get to (world No. 13) Colombia, and Colombia are not really big boys per se, so all the way to the quarter-finals it seems very open for Argentina.”

“It’s just a matter of whether they are able to meet their standards and expectations. Argentina, at the very least, should be in the quarter-finals,” he added.

One can argue Lionel Scaloni’s side already had the luck of the draw when they were pulled into Group J alongside Austria (2-0), Algeria (3-0) and Jordan (3-1), who were all dispatched with ease.

They were then rewarded with a last-32 meeting in the bottom half of the bracket with Cape Verde, the second-lowest ranked team remaining in the tournament at world No. 67 based on the June 11 FIFA rankings, ahead of only 73rd-ranked Ghana.

While the top four teams – Argentina, France, Spain and England – are kept apart until the semi-finals, La Albiceleste have the easiest route on paper.

The combined ranking of teams – stronger sides have a smaller numerical value – in Argentina’s quarter is 257, far higher than the one featuring world No. 3 France (197).

Fourth-ranked England’s quarter has a combined ranking of 175, while world No. 2 Spain are, on paper, in the toughest quarter with a combined ranking of 147.

A closer look shows at least one matchup between top-20 sides in every quarter, except Argentina’s.

The high-profile showdowns are Netherlands (8th) v Morocco (7th) in the French quarter, Portugal (5th) v Croatia (11th) and Belgium (9th) v Senegal (15th) in the Spanish section, and Brazil (6th) v Japan (18th) in the English cluster.

The teams in the top half of the draw also have quite a raw deal, with most of Europe’s and Africa’s finest found here.

Just to get to the semi-finals, France potentially need to beat four-time winners Germany in the last 16 and three-time runners-up Netherlands or African champions Morocco in the quarter-finals.

Similarly, Spain could meet multiple former semi-finalists in Portugal or Croatia in the last 16 and Belgium in the last eight.

In the lower half, England could face five-time champions Brazil in the quarter-finals, while the earliest Argentina could meet a top-20 team is also at this stage if world No. 13 Colombia make their way into the top eight.

They are also kept away from top-10 teams until the semi-finals – possibly against England or Brazil – if they progress as expected.

The favourable draw has left cynics wondering if it was fixed.

British tabloid The Sun wrote about fans astonished by the defending champions’ easy path to the World Cup final with the headline: “Not saying it’s rigged, but...”

Round of 32: Debutants await

But such sinister suggestions are hogwash, as the bracket could have looked a lot different and balanced if some of the established teams lived up to their end of the bargain.

A perfect storm of debutants Cape Verde having the games of their lives to hold Spain (0-0), Uruguay (2-2) and Saudi Arabia (0-0), and the Uruguayans’ fallout with coach Marcelo Bielsa meant that the Africans progressed as Group H runners-up to earn their third meeting with a World Cup-winning team.

But if the rankings had held, Argentina would be facing two-time winners and world No. 16 Uruguay instead and may not be feeling so confident about their chances, as they had lost 2-0 at home in 2023 and won 1-0 away in 2025 during the World Cup qualifiers.

Round of 16: Aussies or Pharaohs

If they beat Cape Verde, they will meet either Australia (27th) or Egypt (29th), runners-up of Groups D and G respectively.

Against Argentina, Egypt have lost both their previous meetings while Australia have lost seven and won just once in nine outings.

Both are also badly affected by injuries with Australians Mathew Leckie and Jacob Italiano out, and Egyptian talisman Mohamed Salah sweating on a knee issue.

In another scenario, Argentina could have been paired with Paraguay (41st) or Belgium instead in a tougher last-16 matchup.

Paraguay had beaten Argentina 2-1 away in a World Cup qualifier in 2024, while Belgium have one win in three previous World Cup meetings with the champions.

Quarter-finals: Colombia?

As mentioned, the highest-ranked team Argentina could face in the last eight is world No. 13 Colombia.

This could have been replaced with a blockbuster showdown between Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo, had Portugal converted the 1-1 draw against the Democratic Republic of Congo into a win and topped Group K.

Avoid complacency

If another stroke of fortune comes their way, their biggest rivals may even be gone before the business end of the competition, raising Argentina’s chances of becoming only the third team to retain the title after Italy (1938) and Brazil (1962).

With Messi eyeing his first Golden Boot, and the squad in sync with Scaloni, who has earned respect and goodwill for delivering the World Cup and two Copa America crowns in eight years, they may not need any more favours to become back-to-back champions.

On ESPN UK, two-time Women’s World Cup winner and former American defender Ali Krieger said: “They just have to be careful in not getting complacent, and have to play to their potential. I have no doubt Argentina can accomplish that task, also because of the depth they showed.”