More expensive air tickets on the horizon as oil prices soar and Russia's invasion continues
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Singapore Airlines said in response to queries that it no longer flies through the Russian airspace, without elaborating on when this began.
PHOTO: ST FILE
Toh Ting Wei
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SINGAPORE - Travellers should expect longer flights to parts of Europe and higher air ticket prices if Russia's invasion of Ukraine drags on.
The conflict has led to soaring oil prices and increased insurance costs for airlines, which will in turn lead to higher ticket prices, said industry observers.
The distances of some routes to Europe will also be longer, with carriers now either banned from the Russian airspace or deliberately avoiding it.
Singapore Airlines (SIA) said in response to queries that it no longer flies through the Russian airspace, without elaborating on when this began.
Its spokesman added: "Depending on the prevailing wind conditions, some flights on the routes between Singapore, Denmark, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom may occasionally experience a longer flight time of approximately an hour."
He added that airfares are determined by supply and demand, and therefore subject to change.
Major European airlines, including Lufthansa and Air France, have said their flights to the Asia-Pacific will continue in spite of the disruption caused by Russia's airspace closure. But Air France has told customers that they may face schedule changes and longer flight times.
National University of Singapore Law School's Professor Alan Tan, whose specialisations include aviation law, said the impact to air travellers depends on how long the conflict drags on.
"If Russian airspace continues to be closed for a while, even to only some carriers, there could be knock-on effects on ticket prices due to overall decreased competition and increased fuel, insurance and aircraft leasing costs," he said.
He noted that the vast Russian airspace is critical to direct flights between Europe and north-east Asia. He also said some European airlines will see their flights to Japan and Korea being seriously affected by Russia's move to close its airspace to them.
"While intra-Asia travel should not be too affected due to our distance from Ukraine, the war will invariably weigh down on travel sentiment and confidence generally," Prof Tan added.
Some observers said that the conflict deals a significant setback to the global aviation sector that has been trying to get back on its feet after being hit by the Covid-19 pandemic.
Global aviation consultancy Ascend by Cirium's forecast that global air traffic would recover to 75 per cent of pre-pandemic levels by August this year have now been thrown off.
"We are seeing the negative impact of airspace restrictions, economic uncertainty in Europe and beyond, and generally higher oil and fuel prices globally," said the firm's head Rob Morris, adding that these "significantly threaten that demand recovery".
Beyond the aviation sector, Mr Morris said higher fuel prices will drive up air freight charges, which could lead to increased costs across entire economies.
Mr Joshua Ng, director of the Alton Aviation Consultancy, said that the conflict will make the road to recovery harder for Asian airlines if Russia's airspace restrictions are extended to include them.
In this case, Japan Airlines, ANA and Korean Air will be the most hard hit as their flights spend considerable time in Russian airspace.
South-east Asian airlines such as SIA, Thai Airways and Cathay Pacific operate many flights to Europe but are far less exposed to Russian airspace, said Mr Ng.
Despite the uncertainty caused by Russia's invasion, industry group International Air Transport Association (Iata) remains optimistic about the aviation sector's long-term prospects.
Iata said earlier this month that prior to the pandemic, Russia was the 11th largest market for air transport services in terms of passenger numbers, while Ukraine ranked 48.
<p>Passengers in front of a departures board with some cancellations at Sheremetyevo International Airport in Moscow, Feb. 28, 2022. The ruble cratered, the stock market froze and the public rushed to withdraw cash on Monday as Western sanctions kicked in and Russia awoke to uncertainty and fear over the rapidly spreading repercussions of President Vladimir PutinÕs invasion of Ukraine. (Sergey Ponomarev/The New York Times)</p>
PHOTO: NYTNS
Iata Asia-Pacific spokesman Albert Tjoeng told The Straits Times that while the conflict poses downside risks, it is too early to estimate what the near-term consequences will be for aviation.
"Aviation is resilient. Outside of routes linked to Russia and Ukraine, we would not expect any long-term impacts on travel trends," he added.
Concurring, Mr Mohshin Aziz, director of the Pangolin Aviation Recovery Fund, said history has shown that isolated conflicts had no lasting impact on global air travel.
The aviation industry will continue its recovery trajectory if the current war between Russia and Ukraine does not expand beyond the latter's borders, he added.
