Longer-term consequences of US strike on Venezuela concerning for small states: SM Lee

SINGAPORE – The longer-term consequences of the United States’ military intervention in Venezuela are something small countries like Singapore will have to worry about, said Senior Minister Lee Hsien Loong.

He noted that Venezuela is a “complicated country” with a difficult internal situation, where it has destabilised the environment for its neighbours through factors such as refugees and drugs.

“But that does not justify military intervention by one country into another, unilaterally and without any proper authorisation,” he said, speaking at a dialogue during the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute’s Regional Outlook Forum at the Sands Expo and Convention Centre on Jan 8.

“From the point of view of a small country, if that is the way the world works, we have a problem.”

SM Lee said that to some extent, that has always been how the world works, and the United States has done this many times in different parts of the world, as have others, he said, citing Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine and the US’ 1983 invasion of Grenada.

“But you look at the situation, you look at the impact of it, and you ask yourself, Is this a plus or minus? And I don’t think this is a plus.”

SM Lee also said the US military intervention is quite clearly “a contravention of international law”.

In such cases, Singapore has always stated its position unequivocally and voted accordingly at the United Nations, he added.

He also reiterated the Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ statement that

Singapore is gravely concerned

by the US strike on Venezuela on Jan 3, and that the Republic is against military intervention in other countries as it is contrary to international law.

Deposed Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores were captured by US forces in a dramatic military operation on Jan 3. Maduro later pleaded not guilty to narco-terrorism, drugs and weapons charges in a New York court.

Asked what safeguards Singapore has in the face of such interventionist action and a disrupted world order, SM Lee spelt out several, including maintaining a successful economy and spending on defence.

Singapore currently spends around

3 per cent of its gross domestic product on defence

, “and we continue to do that, not to threaten anybody, but just to keep ourselves safe”, said SM Lee.

He also stressed the importance of working together with other countries and actively participating in discussions with different international groupings.

These relationships ensure Singapore has a network of countries that want to trade with one another and continue to do business under a set of rules, and still has agency, said SM Lee, adding: “I don’t determine the outcome, but I have influence over my fate.”

On whether there is a need to choose sides when other countries clash, SM Lee said that from the Government’s point of view, it has to stand up for a principle if it is at stake.

“The more we have links with all parties, I think the more we are in a position to say, ‘Well, I have some options. I don’t have to be pushed completely into following one side and not the other’,” he added.

Looking back on 2025, he noted that the world underwent a “sea change” that will have significant long-term impact on lives.

The anchor player of the global multilateral system – the US – has opted out, choosing to deal in bilateral, one-on-one relationships with countries that are contingent on tariffs.

“The consequences will take time to play out, but that is going to hurt the world economy and lead to less stability, less growth, less prosperity, less economic integration and technological progress,” SM Lee said.

He also noted that the US has been more willing to act unilaterally when it sees its national interest requires it. This includes its recent intervention in Venezuela, as well as in Nigeria and the Middle East.

The world will also have to contend with the fundamental tensions that remain between the US and China, even as both parties are reluctant to incur the cost of a full-scale trade war.

While the US remains a very important partner for the rest of the countries in the Asia-Pacific region, there is a recognition that China is a major and growing economic partner, he said.

Turning the discussion to the region, Professor Chan Heng Chee, chairman of the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute’s board of trustees, who moderated the session, asked about ASEAN centrality, given that the

US played a big role

in the first round of the brokering of the ceasefire in the Thailand-Cambodia border conflict, while

China did so in the second round

.

“ASEAN has influence over its members, but it does not have absolute influence over its members,” said SM Lee, adding that it is not a supranational entity that directs or overrides its members.

Those with the greatest power are the countries’ biggest trading partners, he noted, adding that it is not surprising the major powers like China and the US are able to nudge, encourage, advise, and even coerce other countries.

“It’s a reality that foreign, external powers have influence over ASEAN countries, and ASEAN has to work together despite that, and in many areas, we’re still able to do so.”

ASEAN centrality does not mean the grouping directs matters among its member countries, much less in the rest of the world, he added.

Responding to former Malaysian MP Ong Kian Ming on how Singapore navigated the changes in his country’s government since 2018, SM Lee said there were changes in status to projects that the countries had agreed to cooperate on, but “that’s just the way it is, and we have to wait until the politics enables things to restart, and meanwhile, we just keep things on an even keel”.

It has been so since he was prime minister, and continues now with Prime Minister Lawrence Wong who took over in May 2024, added SM Lee, who became PM in August 2004.

While Singapore will have to work with whichever government Malaysia forms, and vice versa, he pointed out that the countries have fundamentally different systems – with Singapore’s based on equal opportunity and meritocracy, while Malaysia’s is underpinned by the bumiputera policy.

He said: “The relationship is complex, but we have found ways to coexist and to cooperate despite that, and I’m quite confident we will keep on doing this.”

Learning from ‘black swan’ events

Looking inward, SM Lee also answered a question from Prof Chee on lessons learnt from the “black swan” events from his term as PM, singling out the global financial crisis of 2008 and the Covid-19 pandemic.

Besides preparing the population for the impact of such events psychologically, there were also concerted efforts to secure people’s livelihoods, he said.

The Government also had to communicate clearly and directly with the population during the crises, and needed a good team to come up with plans and execute them, he added.

With the external environment having changed significantly since then, SM Lee noted now there is “greater friction, greater rivalry, greater unpredictability, and less rules and norms which will help a small country make its way forward”.

The challenge is to make Singaporeans understand that it is possible for the nation to prosper in such a world, but they will have to work harder, he said.

“This is going to be (how it is) for a long time, but we are better prepared for this than many other countries... It’s a challenge for the new Prime Minister and (his) new team, and I’m no longer the PM, but I’m doing my best to help,” he added.

Asked by former senior minister of state Zainul Abidin Rasheed about the challenges of leadership change, SM Lee said it is not straightforward but in Singapore “we hope to maintain it stable, predictable and also keeping up with the times”.

“So that you have a leader who is in sync with a generation, on top of his job, and in touch with what is happening in the world. And he feels that I am of this generation, and I am going to take it forward and hand it over in good shape to the next one.”