Why Singapore is getting its ducks in a row in exploring nuclear energy

Singapore is set to embark on Phase 1 of the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) Integrated Nuclear Infrastructure Review (INIR) mission in 2027, as announced by Prime Minister Lawrence Wong at the Energy Market Authority’s 25th Anniversary Gala Dinner on May 19.

The IAEA INIR mission is a timely one. As a small city-state with unique constraints, it is imperative that Singapore studies every viable low-carbon option in navigating the energy trilemma of security, affordability, and sustainability. With advancements in nuclear technology having given rise to potentially safer and more reliable reactors, nuclear energy has once again emerged as worthy of serious consideration for the Republic’s long-term energy needs.

As part of these exploratory efforts, national capabilities need to be, and have been, built up steadily. The recent establishment of the Energy Market Authority’s Nuclear Energy Office and the National Environment Agency’s Nuclear Safety Division reflects such development within key government agencies, spanning both the potential promoter and regulator functions.

This capability-building is being undertaken outside of government as well. Here, at the Singapore Nuclear Research and Safety Institute (SNRSI), we have been developing the technical and scientific expertise needed to support the decision-making process since our set-up in 2014.

Such expertise includes the know-how required to conduct reactor safety analysis, risk assessment, and radiological dispersion modelling, and is spread across the five main research teams – radiobiology; radiochemistry; reactor safety; radionuclide dispersion; and nuclear policy.

Outside of SNRSI, institutes such as the Energy Studies Institute and Centre for International Law have also been engaged in key policy research related to specific areas of nuclear energy. 

All of the above is part of a structured approached aligned with IAEA guidance in laying the groundwork for the upcoming INIR mission.

What is INIR Phase 1?

To appreciate why this INIR mission is vital, one must understand the IAEA’s three-phase “Milestones Approach” framework. Phase 1 focuses on the planning and studies required for an informed decision on whether to implement a nuclear energy programme. Phase 2 subsequently involves developing the necessary legal, institutional, and human capacity infrastructure, while Phase 3 moves towards actual project implementation, from construction to commissioning.

At every phase, the IAEA has recommendations for steps to take for each of the 19 nuclear infrastructure issues. The INIR mission is a specialised service offered by the IAEA to assess and advise countries as they navigate each of these stages.

It is essential to highlight that embarking on a Phase 1 mission is not a commitment by the authorities to deploy nuclear energy, nor is it an official “green light” from the IAEA. Rather, it is a pre-decision national infrastructure assessment.

This independent expert peer review will evaluate Singapore’s preparedness across the 19 infrastructure issues. By subjecting its research and capability-building efforts to rigorous international review, Singapore can ensure an objective and thorough assessment and avoid the pitfall of “marking its own homework”.

This process has become the first step of choice for newcomer countries ever since INIR was first established in 2009. Several of Singapore’s neighbours, including the Philippines, Malaysia and Vietnam, have undertaken such missions without necessarily deciding to deploy nuclear energy immediately.

Strategic due diligence

Singapore’s consideration of nuclear energy is driven by significant shifts in the global energy landscape. Recent geopolitical developments, most notably Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and ongoing tensions involving Iran, Israel and the United States, have underscored the enduring importance of energy security. These events highlight the vulnerability of global energy supply chains and reinforce the need for nations, including Singapore, to diversify and strengthen their energy sources. 

At the same time, the transition to a low-carbon future is accelerating. At COP28, over 30 countries have pledged to triple their nuclear energy output as part of efforts to reduce carbon emissions. As a result, there is renewed global interest in nuclear energy, especially Gen IV technologies and Small Modular Reactors, with numerous companies pushing ahead to commercialise reactors of new designs. Singapore should continue to monitor these developments and assess their maturity. Concurrently, embarking on the INIR mission will allow the country to understand its readiness vis-a-vis making the decision to deploy nuclear energy.

Further, engaging with the IAEA at an early stage demonstrates Singapore’s unwavering commitment to international best practices, non-proliferation, and safety. Such transparency also fosters trust within the international community as we conduct our due diligence.

However, the timeline for such an endeavour remains lengthy. Based on the IAEA’s global experience, the journey from this initial Phase 1 planning stage to the actual construction and operation of a nuclear power plant takes at least 15 years.

Ultimately, the review mission will provide the Government with the objective feedback required to identify infrastructure gaps and prioritise future actions. In this way, we ensure that if a decision were made, it will be a knowledgeable one based on a comprehensive understanding of what a nuclear programme entails. 

The road ahead

The path forward is not without challenges, particularly in developing the necessary legal, regulatory, and human capital required for such a complex technology. Therefore, Singapore must also stay abreast of global developments in safety frameworks to ensure our own readiness is tailored to our unique domestic context.

Embarking on the INIR mission enables Singapore to systematically assess nuclear energy as a potential low-carbon option, while maintaining a clear understanding of the technical, regulatory, and societal considerations involved.