The COP30 effect: Experts weigh in on how climate talks will affect people, jobs, nature in S-E Asia

SINGAPORE - Discussions at the UN climate conferences are global in nature.

But how each country experiences climate change and its impacts, as well as the domestic policy implications of the global talks, will differ.

Ahead of COP30, the upcoming summit which will be held in Brazil for two weeks from Nov 10, The Straits Times speaks to four experts on how the key issues of discussion will impact South-east Asia.

Adaptation

Who the expert is: Singapore Management University professor of urban climate Winston Chow is the principal investigator of the Cooling Singapore initiative, and co-chair of working group II of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The working group looks at climate impacts, adaptation and vulnerability.

Why is adaptation important to South-east Asia?

South-east Asia is highly vulnerable to climate change. As a whole, it faces multiple climate risks and hazards,

such as rising temperatures, sea-level rise,

increasing droughts and floods, and the intensification of extreme events like typhoons.

These events are already impacting ecosystems, agriculture and food production and infrastructure. There is an urgent need to ensure that communities have the means to respond to these impacts, to protect livelihoods and ensure that people have the capacity to build resilience in the face of future, oncoming risks.

Given the mutual dependence and linkages between countries of South-east Asia, adaptation efforts will also help to improve food security and reduce transboundary risks such as water scarcity.

How can the COP30 outcome on adaptation benefit South-east Asia?

The Brazilian presidency has called for Belem to be the “COP of implementation”.

In particular, the parties are expected to agree on a set of indicators that can enable them to develop climate adaptation plans, and track progress in these areas. These indicators cover thematic areas for adaptation of concern to South-east Asia, from the governance of water resources, the implementation of climate-resilient agriculture, to people benefiting from nature-based adaptation solutions.

When agreed, the indicators will provide a way for the world to measure progress made in these areas.

What will break negotiations on adaptation, and how will it impact the region?

Most, if not all, countries have embarked on national adaptation planning processes, and five already have national adaptation plans. They are Argentina, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Bhutan and Uganda. This work will not stop.

South-east Asian nations are also working on adaptation. Outcomes from COP30, such as an agreement on the global goal on adaptation indicators and how financing can be matched with adaptation needs, will be positive outcomes for this region.

Mitigation

Who the expert is: Ms Melissa Low is a climate policy observer who has participated in the UN climate change conferences for over a decade. The research fellow at the NUS Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions also heads the university’s Sustainability Academy.

Why is mitigation important for South-east Asia?

South-east Asia is one of the fastest-growing regions in the world, with a generally young and aspirational population. The region is home to agriculture and manufacturing sectors. If left unchecked, greenhouse gas emissions could grow significantly due to developmental pressures.

A report by the International Renewable Energy Agency showed that Asean’s total emissions in 2019 were almost 25 per cent greater than that of the European Union, and accounted for 7.8 per cent of global emissions.

What would a successful outcome for mitigation mean for the region?

We should look at which South-east Asian countries have submitted their 2035 climate targets. So far, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei and Cambodia have done so as at Nov 4. This leaves half of the region not having clear

mitigation trajectories for 2035.

It is therefore unclear what position these countries might take at COP30, for example, on reducing emissions or in shifting to a greener economy.

It is hard to tell what success would look like for individual countries, much less regionally, since South-east Asia does not negotiate as a bloc at COP and has not put out statements on their stance.

The countries will need to implement the decisions that come out of COP30. If assistance through finance or imparting technological knowledge are required, the countries can engage in relevant negotiations or capacity building platforms offered by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, the key body driving the climate talks, and partner organisations.

What will break negotiations on this front, and how will it impact the region?

There could be a dispute among parties over which issues should be included, excluded, or prioritised in the official agenda for the conference. If this “agenda fight” happens, the start of the climate talks could be delayed.

For example, some parties may want to discuss how each country’s 2035 climate targets are aligned with the 2023 global stocktake – a UN process which outlined what needs to be done to meet the Paris Agreement’s goal. This could mean that based on how negotiations go, countries may need to revise their 2035 targets to make them more ambitious.

But some countries believe it is their sovereign right to decide how ambitious their plans should be.

Finance

Who the expert is: Mr Chan Wai-Shin is director of research at consultancy Asia Research and Engagement. He bridges global investors with Asian companies to accelerate decarbonisation.

Why is climate finance important to South-east Asia?

South-east Asia is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, and is also a growing emitter of greenhouse gases.

Climate finance is important because it can give South-east Asian economies the means needed to transition to lower-carbon options, as well as adapt to a warming region.

These efforts can include shifting the region’s power production away from fossil fuels to more sources of renewable energy and connecting the grids of different countries.

Initiatives to improve national resilience to typhoons, floods and other extreme weather events can also benefit from greater financial flows, whether from other governments, multilateral banks or the private sector.

Concessional finance, such as grants, can help mobilise the broad range of capital required for these projects.

This can provide support for governments and businesses to invest in projects and solutions that may appear less financially attractive at first glance. Guarantees and low-interest rates are other examples of concessional finance.

Sufficient climate finance would accelerate South-east Asia’s ability to achieve future economic growth in a low-carbon manner.

How can the COP30 outcomes for climate finance benefit South-east Asia?

Last year at COP29, developed countries agreed to channel at least US$300 billion (S$391 billion) in annual climate finance for developing countries by 2035. However, the more ambitious goal is for a road map to US$1.3 trillion by the same timeframe to be put forward.

These are tough asks.

Climate finance discussions are always characterised by issues such as who pays (as no one wants to commit individually, only collectively), who receives (as everyone wants to be eligible, but some consider themselves a priority), and how (through what mechanisms and vehicles).

COP30 should build on these technicalities so that finance can actually be disbursed, as opposed to just being discussed on paper. For South-east Asia, success would be characterised by a clear road map to US$1.3 trillion with economies in the region having clear access to such funds for both mitigation and adaptation.

What will break negotiations on this front, and how will it impact South-east Asia?

Finance remains a sticking point at climate negotiations.

The global economy is rarely at a stage where potential payers are ready to fund large-scale climate action, and without clear responsibility from governments, multilateral development banks or private actors, outcomes often remain vague.

For emerging economies, this slows the transition to lower-carbon pathways and delays adaptation efforts – directly affecting communities and growth.

In South-east Asia, where climate risks are intensifying, limited access to finance weakens regional progress. When finance stalls, so does climate action – and South-east Asia cannot afford that slowdown.

In the absence of strong global commitment, South-east Asian economies would need to rely on other signals – such as climatic events, technological breakthroughs or significant supply chain shifts – to spur stronger climate ambition.

Nature

Who the expert is: Ms Tamara Singh, managing director of the Singapore team for The Nature Conservancy. She leads the global environmental non-profit organisation’s work to support Singapore as a global centre for innovation, partnerships and science to help scale up conservation and impact in the Asia-Pacific region.

Why is nature important for South-east Asia?

South-east Asia is on the front lines of the climate crisis.

Rising temperatures and extreme weather events are not future threats – they are already disrupting lives, livelihoods and economies across the region. With more than 100 million workers in jobs closely tied to the environment, the stakes are high – not just for nature, but for people.

Yet, nature is a powerful ally – a recent study has shown that solutions beneficial to nature and biodiversity can unlock US$4.3 trillion of business opportunities in the Asia-Pacific, and create more than 230 million jobs.

Nature-based solutions offer powerful tools for action to combat climate change, especially in a region so rich in tropical forests, coral reefs, mangroves and peatlands. These solutions enhance natural ecosystems to mitigate hazards, and can offer environmental, economic and social benefits.

These solutions alone are not enough.

To deliver real impact, they must be increased in scale alongside deep decarbonisation in the energy and industrial sectors.

Funding the protection of nature and accelerating finance supporting action to deal with climate change are both critical for seizing the opportunities that nature presents for people.

What are your expectations for COP30 in this track?

The Nature Conservancy is advocating a swifter transition to renewable energy sources, the greater use of natural climate solutions and more investment from both the public and private sectors, especially to help countries that have been disproportionately affected by the impacts of climate change.

As a global society, we must accelerate the equitable phase-out of fossil fuels to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 or sooner, and transition to renewable energy.

We must also invest in financial flows towards people, climate and nature.

We must mobilise US$1.3 trillion for nature-positive projects, policies and practices.

We are calling for increased inclusivity and equity in climate policy processes since the leadership of marginalised groups, like indigenous peoples and local communities, are essential to protecting cultural and biological diversity.

To build climate-resilient societies, we must empower groups who steward nature to secure their homes, livelihoods and futures.

What would a successful outcome for nature look like for South-east Asia?

When nature thrives, so do we: livelihoods are stable, food and water are secure, and homes are safe and resilient. Our region faces a unique set of challenges – from balancing rapid development with environmental sustainability, to safeguarding vulnerable communities and ecosystems.

When nature-based solutions are understood as actions that address multiple priorities – such as climate resilience, human well-being, biodiversity and economic opportunity – we unlock the potential for greater climate finance and regional collaboration.

What will break negotiations on this front, and how will it impact South-east Asia?

COP’s enduring strength lies in its ability to foster thoughtful consensus and elevate diverse voices from across the globe.

But to fully realise this potential, we must move beyond systems and structures that inadvertently hold back collaboration and inclusivity.

Our approach is to start with the critical experiments and pilots to assess and understand potential so that we can better prioritise where we can focus our efforts.

South-east Asia, with its history of partnerships and alliances, is well positioned to be a test bed for these efforts, and to continue progress even where negotiations may stumble.

As we look ahead to COP30 in Belem, it is vital that we approach this moment with clarity about the urgency and openness to the solutions already within our grasp.

For what is being touted as the “COP of implementation”, we are looking for outcomes that are concrete, ambitious and inclusive, and for negotiations to shift from pledge-making to real-world execution.