How will S’pore be assessed for its ability to make an informed choice on deploying nuclear energy?

SINGAPORE — Prime Minister Lawrence Wong said on May 19 that Singapore will be undergoing an assessment by the UN atomic watchdog in 2027 to determine the nation’s ability to make an informed decision on nuclear energy deployment.

Here’s what you need to know about the move, from what the assessment entails to how Singapore has been preparing for it.

What is the assessment about and how will Singapore be assessed?

The independent assessment by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is a voluntary exercise for countries that are considering whether to embark on or expand their nuclear power programme.

It ensures that the national infrastructure required for safe and secure nuclear power use is developed and implemented in a responsible and orderly manner.

Known as the Integrated Nuclear Infrastructure Review (INIR) Phase 1 Mission, the assessment will cover 19 areas including nuclear safety, funding and financing, and environmental protection.

It will allow Singapore to better understand its current stage of development, and the IAEA will recommend areas Singapore can improve on.

The assessment is based on IAEA’s milestones approach, which is a structured, phased and comprehensive method to assist countries that are considering or planning their first nuclear power plant.

Under this approach, there are three phases that countries have to go through to deliver a nuclear power programme.

The first phase will see the country’s building capability, such as planning and studying, to make an informed decision on whether to develop a nuclear power programme. Singapore is embarking on this phase.

If the country decides to adopt nuclear power, it will go onto the second phase, which requires it to do preparatory work for the contracting and construction of a nuclear power plant.

This includes putting in place the necessary legal, institutional, human capacity and technical infrastructure to enable the programme to proceed, said Mr Ian Grant, a Canada-based independent consultant providing advisory services and training in nuclear infrastructure development and regulatory frameworks.

The third and final phase will see the implementation of the nuclear power plant project – from contracting and construction to eventually operating it.

According to IAEA’s website, it takes about 10 to 15 years for a country to move from first considering nuclear power to operating its first plant.

Why is this assessment significant?

As a nation’s infrastructure is central to its ability to support a nuclear power programme, it is prudent to check the country’s readiness to embark on such a programme should a decision be made, said Professor Laurence Williams, who has 50 years of international nuclear experience under his belt and chairs the National Environment Agency’s (NEA) Nuclear Safety Advisory Panel.

Undertaking the review is a way of checking that a country’s infrastructure is sufficiently comprehensive for the demands of a nuclear power programme, he said.

“It will enable Singapore to put in place an action plan to deliver any necessary improvements in Singapore’s existing infrastructure should a decision be taken to adopt nuclear power.”

Dr Alvin Chew, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at NTU, said the announcement also shows that Singapore has been building its capabilities and capacities in the realm of nuclear safety since the conclusion of a pre-feasibility study in 2012. That study concluded that conventional nuclear technologies were unsuitable for Singapore.

Dr Michael Short from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s department of nuclear science and engineering said the announcement signals a serious assessment of Singapore’s readiness to explore nuclear energy, although he noted that it does not mean that any decision will be made, on any timeline.

He added that the move is timely, as countries in the region are increasingly considering nuclear energy.

“No matter what Singapore decides to pursue domestically, it must understand the implications of its neighbours’ choices,” he said.

Singapore Nuclear Research and Safety Institute (SNRSI)’s chief executive Low Xin Wei said the move signals “seriousness and transparency” to Singaporeans and the international community, and that the Government is willing to benchmark against the highest international standards before making any decision on nuclear energy.

What is the assessment process like? How long will it take?

There are three main steps for the phase one evaluation. Firstly, Singapore has to prepare a report which evaluates the status of development across all 19 areas. The report is in progress.

The next step will see a panel of IAEA experts conducting plenary interviews lasting a week in Singapore tentatively in 2027. The IAEA will publish the key findings after.

Third, the IAEA will issue a final report detailing its observations, recommendations and suggestions. This is typically done several months after the assessment concludes. The Government said it intends to share the results with members of the public.

If necessary, Singapore may invite the IAEA to conduct a follow-up mission to assess the implementation of the recommendations and suggestions provided, said a Government spokesperson.

What comes after being assessed?

The completion of the assessment will provide the Singapore Government with an understanding of the extent to which the country’s infrastructure is able to accommodate the deployment of a nuclear power programme, said Prof Williams.

“The results of the INIR are only one of the factors that need to be taken into account when considering whether to adopt a nuclear power programme,” he said.

“If a decision is taken to go forward with nuclear power, it is likely that an action plan will be developed to address the findings of the INIR.”

Asked how long it usually takes for a country to decide to deploy nuclear energy after the first phase, Prof Williams said there is no fixed time for such deliberations.

The decision to deploy nuclear power will depend on other necessary factors beyond the assessment, he noted.

What has Singapore been doing to prepare for this assessment?

Singapore has been ramping up efforts in the 19 areas to be assessed.

For example, under the area on nuclear safety, its efforts include setting up a dedicated nuclear safety division at NEA and commissioning studies to examine international safety standards – including how to design and operate a reactor safely, what safety systems are needed and how to prevent accidents.

Singapore is also learning from partners that have operated and regulated nuclear plants safely for decades. These include the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Finland’s Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority, and France’s Nuclear Safety Authority.

For other areas like radioactive waste management, EMA conducted a study in 2023 to better understand radioactive waste management requirements, said a Government spokesperson.

The study provided insights on well-established practices internationally for the safe storage and disposal of radioactive waste, as well as recommended radioactive waste management options which the Government is currently studying.

SNRSI’s Mr Low said that these two areas stand out as the ones most important for Singapore to get right.

“Given Singapore’s context as a small, land-scarce and densely populated country, there is very little margin for error,” he said.

Any nuclear facility would need to meet the highest international safety standards, supported by strong regulatory oversight and deep technical assessment to ensure that all aspects, from design to construction to operation, are robust and reliable, he added.

Radioactive waste management is equally critical as Singapore, given its limited land and lack of buffer space used by some larger countries for long-term storage and disposal of waste, he said.

While Dr Short noted that Singapore is ahead in some areas such as nuclear safety and emergency planning, other areas like nuclear fuel cycle and procurement are less developed until a nuclear reactor technology is chosen, if the decision to tap nuclear energy is made at all.

Which countries have gone through this assessment?

The IAEA conducted the first INIR Mission in Jordan in 2009. Countries that have completed INIR Phase 1 Mission include Estonia, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Saudi Arabia, Thailand and Vietnam.

Countries like Vietnam have moved on the second phase of the approach.

While Mr Grant noted that some countries like the United Arab Emirates have “progressed rapidly” with implementation of a nuclear power programme, other countries have decided to delay or stop their programmes.