ST Deep Dive: Concerns over Taiwan; options with Aukus
Here's a round-up of recent commentaries and more by think-tanks in the region and elsewhere that could be of interest to those who watch Asia.
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Ukraine invasion and Taiwan
<p>A Taiwan flag is carried by a Chinook helicopter during a rehearsal for the upcoming National Day celebration in Taipei, Taiwan October 7, 2021. REUTERS/Ann Wang</p>
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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a stark reminder of the possibility that the fate of Taiwan may be eventually decided by military force, says Mr Drew Thompson, a visiting senior research fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy.
Were that to happen, he says, South-east Asian states would face unavoidable political, economic and security risks.
The risk that a military conflict breaks out over Taiwan is not an abstract or remote possibility. Beijing sees Taiwan as an intrinsic part of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), characterised by its “one China” principle. Achieving unification is a fundamental goal of the Communist Party of China (CPC), a political commitment it has made over generations of leaders since chairman Mao Zedong, linking unification to the CPC’s very legitimacy and justification for its continued rule.
Mr Thompson adds that while Asean and its member states will be understandably reluctant to choose sides in a conflict, maintaining its credibility would necessitate at the very least the renunciation of the use of force.
Aukus and options
<p>FILE PHOTO: (File Photo) A Rivercat ferry passes by the Royal Australian Navy's Collins-class submarine HMAS Waller as it leaves Sydney Harbour on May 4, 2020. The Australian government has considered extending the life of the Collins class as it examines the fate of its next-generation sub program./File Photo</p>
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Rather than undermining Asean centrality or further boxing South-east Asia into binary choices of embracing the United States at risk of a relationship with China, Aukus – the security arrangement grouping Australia with the United Kingdom and the US – widens the political space in the region for greater decision-making autonomy, says Ms Jada Fraser in a commentary for the Lowy Institute.
Ms Fraser, a policy research fellow at the Edwin O. Reischauer Centre for East Asian Studies, notes that when contrasted with the more explicit mission of Aukus to balance China, cooperation with the Quad, with its distinct focus on public goods provision, might find broader approval in South-east Asia.
This flexibility could be especially relevant for South-east Asian countries in territorial disputes with China in the South China Sea.
Taken together, the developments with minilateral regional security arrangements are complementary. It is a case of contributing to a whole greater than the sum of the parts, she says.
Malaysian economy, Indonesia investments
<p>FILE PHOTO: A general view of city skyline in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia February 2, 2021. REUTERS/Lim Huey Teng/File Photo</p>
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Surveys conducted in early 2022 are optimistic about Malaysia’s growth prospects in 2022. The Business Confidence Indicator (BCI) published by the Department of Statistics in late February 2022 show that economic activities are expected to increase in the first quarter of 2022.
Recent data releases indicate a strong recovery.
Indeed, as I noted in a column this week, Finance Minister Tengku Zafrul Aziz is possibly eyeing the strong performance for ballast to his own political career.
That said, the domestic economic gains from Malaysia’s transitioning to the Covid-19 endemic phase may be smaller than expected, argues senior fellow Cassey Lee at the Iseas – Yusof Ishak Institute.
Dr Lee says the growth induced by the Covid-19 endemic phase may also be neutralised by adverse and inter-related developments abroad, such as the war in Ukraine and inflationary pressures in developed economies.
And what of Indonesia, Asean’s biggest economy?
Last year, Indonesia’s foreign and domestic direct investment realisation reached 901 trillion rupiah (S$85 billion), nudging the official annual target of 900 trillion rupiah.
Mr Yanuar Fajari, deputy director for investment planning in energy at Indonesia’s Ministry of Investment/Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board, and Dr Siwage Dharma Negara, a senior fellow at the Iseas – Yusof Ishak Institute, credit the overall increase in investments to the Joko Widodo government’s active measures to facilitate business, streamline bureaucratic procedures and improve tax incentives.
Double trouble
<p>TOPSHOT - Rickshaw pullers transport customers along a flooded street following heavy rainfalls in Sylhet on May 19, 2022. (Photo by Mamun HOSSAIN / AFP)</p>
PHOTO: AFP
Since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, countries in the Indo-Pacific have had to deal with the overlapping effects of a pandemic and natural hazards.
Senior research fellow Alistair Cook, coordinator of the humanitarian assistance and disaster relief programme at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, and associate research fellow Christopher Chen examine disaster management in concurrent natural hazard-pandemic scenarios in Bangladesh, Fiji, Indonesia and the Philippines, and argue in this lengthy report that the pandemic is a wake-up call signalling the interconnectedness of the planet and highlights the need for countries to work together to overcome future pandemics.
Disaster management and emergency response are no exception in this regard, and the risk of pandemics should be integrated into operational and strategic planning for more robust and anticipatory humanitarian responses in future, they say.
