ST Deep Dive: ISEAS survey, Asian equilibrium, Arctic winds
Here's a round-up of recent commentaries and more by think-tanks in the region and elsewhere that could be of interest to those who watch Asia.
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ISEAS survey
The annual State of South-east Asia surveys released by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute is a much-awaited event in the early months of the calendar. Here are some key takeaways from this year’s survey.
First, Japan remains the most trusted partner for South-east Asians, followed by the United States and the European Union.
Second, the most trusted vaccine brands among South-east Asians are the mRNA Pfizer and Moderna (54.8 per cent), followed by Chinese brands Sinopharm and Sinovac (18.7 per cent).
Third, South-east Asians are most concerned that Asean is slow and ineffective, and cannot cope with political and economic developments (70.1 per cent). They also share the concern that Asean is becoming an arena for major power competition in which its member states may become proxies of major powers (61.5 per cent).
You can read the full survey here.
Taiwan stakes
While Ukraine and the high Himalayas are indeed areas of high tension currently, the big focal point of US-China friction remains Taiwan. With incursions by Chinese aircraft into Taiwanese airspace almost a daily occurrence, it is common for analysts to speculate that a Chinese invasion to retake the island could take place as early as 2025.
In this paper for RSIS, authors Linbin Wang and Lee Jonghyuk list out what is in it for each of the major players.
Washington aims to use the Taiwan card to prop up the hub-and-spoke security order it has established in the Indo-Pacific region and thereby curb China’s rise.
Beijing needs to show the world its ability to avoid a war across the strait in achieving reunification. Taipei knows well that its interests are best served through its “salami slicing” approach to de facto independence.
The biggest threat to this equilibrium, say the authors, is Chinese President Xi Jinping’s personal aspiration to establish his historical legacy through the “motherland’s reunification”.
Arctic chill
It is no surprise that the Arctic, where climate change is leaving the seas ice-free for longer periods in the year, is turning into an area of geopolitical contest.
Energy-rich Russia is entrenched in the region and is seeking to turn the Arctic Route, also called the Northern Sea Route, into a possible all-weather shipping channel connecting Europe and Asia.
The US is beefing up military capacity in the Arctic. China has declared itself a "near-Arctic State". The recent Sino Russian communique speaks of cooperating in the Arctic.
If you want insights into Moscow’s thinking, you could check this recent paper written for the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies by senior research fellow Vitaly Yermakov.
Separately, I did a podcast this month with Mr Yermakov.
New equilibrium
Last week, foreign ministers of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or Quad, held their fourth meeting. Some think the Quad could one day be an Asian Nato, with China as the focus of strategic suspicion. Quad groups the US with Australia, Japan and India.
The EU has lately been taking a bigger interest in East Asia, and Germany sailed a warship through East Asian waters recently after a gap of nearly two decades.
Clearly things are hotting up.
In this piece for RSIS, distinguished fellow Barry Desker says the US, India, Japan and the EU need to work with China, managing the challenges posed by a rising power while recognising China’s different perspectives.
Together, the major powers need to foster a new great power equilibrium in the Asia-Pacific, he adds.
Meanwhile, research fellow Frederick Kliem, also of RSIS, has this thoughtful piece on the German frigate’s visit to East Asia and Germany’s objectives towards the region.
Other reading:
- For a contrarian view on the merits of the Quad and an alternate suggestion, have a look at this Australian perspective written for the Lowy Institute.
- Former Japan prime minister Shinzo Abe famously had his "three arrows” approach to economic policy. Current Premier Fumio Kishida has been talking of a "new model of capitalism". Emeritus Professor Shujiro Urata of Waseda University gave this take on the subject to East Asia Forum.
- Some key states in India are soon headed for elections. For a granular view on Punjab, where a bitter contest is shaping up for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, check this out from recently appointed Institute of South Asian Studies director Iqbal Singh Sevea.
