ST Deep Dive: Asean and India, a Cabinet shuffle in Indonesia
Here's a round-up of recent commentaries and more by think-tanks in the region and elsewhere that could be of interest to those who watch Asia.
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Asean meets India
India hosted a Special Asean-India Foreign Ministers' Meeting on June 16.
The meeting, which marked the 30th anniversary of the establishment of dialogue relations between India and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, and 10 years since the development of their strategic partnership, was attended by representatives from all Asean member countries, Myanmar excepted.
India is keen to balance China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific.
One manifestation of this has been India's active participation in the recently revived Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (also called the Quad), together with Australia, Japan and the US. On their part, Asean states have reacted cautiously to Quad.
Associate Professor Iqbal Singh Sevea, Director of the Institute of South Asian Studies (Isas), argues here that allaying concerns over the impact of the Quad, greater connectivity and economic integration, and the development of resilient supply chains would serve both Asean and India well in the evolving geopolitical and economic milieu.
Decentralised globalisation, however, will require not just the flow of resources and opening of markets but also the emergence of multiple manufacturing hubs, he adds.
Thus far, India's exports to Asean have been limited by the fact that its manufacturing sector is relatively uncompetitive.
It remains to be seen how the current push to strengthen its manufacturing industry may impact its trade with Asean member states.
Separately, Isas Deputy Director Hernaikh Singh wrote in an Op-ed that despite some issues, the "future is bright" for Asean-India ties.
Jakarta shuffle
In his eight years in power, Indonesian President Joko Widodo has carried out no less than seven Cabinet shuffles.
The latest, says Dr Burhanuddin Muhtadi of Jakarta's State Islamic Univeristy in this paper for Iseas-Yusof Ishak Institute, has seen Mr Jokowi prioritise political consolidation of power ahead of the 2024 presidential elections.
Several of Mr Jokowi's poorly performing ministers who came from major parties such as Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Arifin Tasrif (backed by PDIP) and Minister of Agriculture Syahrul Yasin Limpo (Nasdem Party) managed to survive the reshuffle, he notes.
It also is significant that the two ministers who lost their Cabinet seats – Minister of Trade M. Lutfi and Minister of Agrarian Affairs and Spatial Planning Sofyan Djalil – were political lightweights that came from non-party circles.
These moves to consolidate power in the final two years of his second term underscores Mr Jokowi's desire to ensure that he encounters minimal political friction in the run-up to the presidential elections in 2024.
Separately, in this analysis for ST, our Indonesia Bureau Chief Arlina Arshad agrees that while reshuffles are typically a way to remove underperforming ministers, power sharing, rather than performance improvement, was the dominant motivation this time.
Changing warfare
New technologies, such as artificial intelligence (AI) systems, are projected to alter the direction and character of warfare.
While military AI can enhance warfighting capabilities in all domains, the diffusion of AI systems raises new problems related to ethics, responsibility, and trustworthiness, writes Ms Wichuta Teeratanabodee, Senior Analyst at the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.
Due to the accelerating development of AI, Ms Teertanabodee argues, it is crucial that Asian militaries take responsibility for the utilisation of this technology.
While the advantages offered by AI can enhance military capabilities, the potential risks must be adequately addressed to safeguard international security and order.
Stretched Tatmadaw
From the outside, Myanmar's Tatmadaw – the local name for the ruling military-political edifice – looks invincible.
Yet, it is facing its most serious challenge in over six decades, and there is a small but increasing likelihood that it will lose its grip on power, says Mr Anders Kirstein Moeller, a doctoral student at National University of Singapore, in this paper for Iseas-Yusof Ishak Institute.
From an outside perspective, the conflict in Myanmar looks like a war of attrition that the junta is unlikely to lose.
However, the reality on the ground is more complex, says Mr Moeller.
The Tatmadaw probably has somewhat fewer than 100,000 combat-ready troops, with varying levels of provisioning.
These troops are already stretched thin, as they battle a vast array of armed resistance groups across the entire country, particularly on large fronts in the north, northwest and east of the country.
