Jokowi turns G-20 into platform for peace despite low expectations

When Indonesia's President Joko Widodo launched his peace mission in late June, travelling to Kyiv first and then to Moscow immediately after, many people at home and abroad wondered what exactly he was trying to achieve. Surely not much, given the severity of the Ukraine war. In fact, Kyiv was the target of massive bombing just hours before Mr Widodo and First Lady Iriana arrived by train from Warsaw, and it resumed immediately after they left the Ukrainian capital.

But with such low expectations, and despite the personal danger, it was a trip that the Indonesian leader, popularly known as Jokowi, had to make, if only to salvage the presidency of the Group of 20 wealthiest nations in the world, which he currently holds. Known as G-20, the forum was set up primarily to discuss global economic issues, but what good would it do if group members are now in conflict with one another?

Still, Mr Widodo became one of only a few world leaders to have visited the two capitals back-to-back since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February, meeting first with President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv and a day later with President Vladimir Putin in Moscow. Most other leaders met with one or the other, but not both, one immediately after the other as he did.

The Indonesian leader hardly cut the figure of a global peacemaker. He has no real track record in peace negotiations and is a president known to sit out foreign travels if possible, preferring to address more pressing problems at home. But as G-20 president, he could not shirk from his global responsibility, and he had to try his hands at mediating peace in the Ukraine war, like it or not.

The Indonesian leader was also named by UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres in April as one of six "champions" of the UN Global Crisis Response Group, along with leaders from Bangladesh, Barbados, Denmark, Germany, and Senegal. But there is no doubt that it is the G-20 office that gives him the credentials as a peacemaker, even if the odds are stacked heavily against success.

Given the low expectations of the peace mission to begin with, it would be unfair to call the trip a failure. There was confusion about what happened in Kyiv as well as in Moscow. Mr Widodo's claim that he was bringing a message from Mr Zelensky to Mr Putin has been contradicted by the Ukrainian leader's office which insisted that no such message existed. And Mr Widodo's claim that he received assurances from the Russian leader on the resumption of wheat shipments from Ukraine was contradicted by Mr Putin who asserted that Russia never withheld the shipments in the first place. Some things must have been lost in translation. What is clear is that Ukraine and Russia are still too far apart to expect them to come together, sit down and talk peace.

But it was still worth a try. What else could Mr Widodo have done with the G-20 presidency under the current circumstances? G-20 may be a forum to address financial and economic problems, but peace is a prerequisite for any meaningful discussion about global economic problems.

Ukraine is not a G-20 member unlike Russia which is facing economic embargo and isolation led by the United States and most of its Western allies as punishment for invading its neighbour.

When Indonesia took over the rotating G-20 presidency in December, it was widely billed as a coming out party for Mr Widodo as a global leader. It would have been a fitting tribute to him when he steps down from the political stage in 2024 after serving two five-year terms as president of the fourth largest country in the world. The G-20 presidency for 2022 would also lay the groundwork for Indonesia to claim its rightful place in the world. The country is forecast to become one of the top five economies in the world by 2050, if not earlier. It is currently in 16th place. Indonesia took the G-20 presidency seriously with a grand economic agenda.

Coming at the tail end of the Covid-19 pandemic and the global economic recession it induced, Indonesia announced that "Recover Together, Recover Stronger" would be the theme of its presidency of a group whose members account for 90 per cent of the world's GDP.

The government has invested heavily in mobilising resources and the public in making Indonesia's G-20 presidency a great success, preparing dozens of meetings, all of which will climax with the summit planned for November in Bali.

Now, the Ukraine war has sabotaged Indonesia's plan and has certainly undermined the "recovery" theme altogether. Instead of a recovery, the world economy is now facing possibly another round of recession, thanks to the war. Rising energy and food prices worldwide are already hurting many countries, even those not directly or anywhere near the epicentre of the war.

And we can almost forget the "together" part of the recovery, with many G-20 member countries calling for the exclusion of Russia in all its meetings, on top of the economic sanctions that they have imposed on Russia. And G-20 members are far from united on the issue. China, India, South Africa and Indonesia have not joined the economic sanctions led by the United States.

At the G-20 finance ministers' meeting in Washington in April, which Indonesia hosted, the Russian minister joined the gathering online, but many of them walked out in protest when he addressed the meeting. This weekend will see G-20 foreign ministers meeting in Bali. Russia's Mr Sergei Lavrov will attend in person and will square off with Mr Antony Blinken of the United States. News reports said the two will not have bilateral meetings. The Ukraine war undoubtedly will feature prominently at the meeting.

Indonesia's diplomatic skills will be put to the test in how it handles these meetings, including the November summit. In hindsight, Jakarta made the right decision in not outrightly condemning Russia for the invasion. If it had, it would have cut off any communication channels with Moscow, making its G-20 presidency more difficult than it is now.

Indonesia appears to have succeeded in resisting pressures from the United States and several other G-20 members who had earlier demanded that Russia be disinvited from the summit in Bali.

It insisted that the host nation has no power to expel or exclude members and that such a decision should be made through a consensus of all members. Indonesia already accommodated President Joe Biden's demand that the Ukrainian leader be invited to Bali. It is unclear at this stage how many of the G-20 leaders will come to Bali, but Indonesia has extended invitations to everyone. Mr Putin has accepted the invitation but has not said whether he will come to Bali or attend virtually.

The war in Ukraine has certainly taken much of the expected shine off Indonesia's G-20 presidency, with the economic agenda in tatters and Mr Widodo's peace mission not making any visible impact.

But it has not been a complete disaster either. Various G-20 meetings have taken place or are taking place, although the focus has shifted away from recovery to dealing with the fallout from the war. Indonesia still has five months left in leading the G-20 to make a difference before handing over the presidency to India towards the end of the year. All eyes are now on the November summit in Bali.