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Holes in the recession story
Four reasons why one should be sceptical about prevailing pessimism on the economic outlook.
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The main reason that "recession" is such a scary word is that recessions are usually unexpected.
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Jim O'Neill
With so much talk of stagnation, inflation, and stagflation in recent months, it is worth questioning whether the prevailing pessimism is justified. While I have shared in the gloom (warning early on that it could be a "bad year for markets"), I'm starting to reflect on my previous views, for four reasons.
First, I am struck by just how widespread the recession narrative has become. Almost everyone seems to believe that developed countries are heading into, or are already in, a recession. I have given multiple interviews to business consultants who all want to know "how to prepare for the recession". As I remarked to one of them, I know of no previous recession that was so confidently anticipated as the one that is supposedly upon us now.
