Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine on Feb 24, two views quickly emerged in the West about what lesson China would take from the war.

The first suggested that Nato's failure to deter Russia - or to defend Ukraine directly - would inspire China to advance the timetable for a planned invasion of Taiwan, or even to capitalise on the chaos brought about by the war to attack the island immediately. But after Russia's military ran into significant and unexpected challenges early on, an alternate line of analysis emerged suggesting that China has now been significantly deterred from ever attempting to take Taiwan.