What do rising pistachio prices mean for the Dubai Chocolate trend?

SINGAPORE – So much depends upon a tiny green seed, bathed in sun and air, grown on a bushy tree. 

The humble pistachio has taken the world by storm, lending its vibrant colour and rich, earthy flavour to cakes, cookies, ice cream and, most recently, the dizzyingly popular Dubai Chocolate – a thick, Instagrammable chocolate bar filled with pistachio-tahini cream and kataifi (shredded filo pastry).  

But the ongoing war in Iran, which has disrupted shipping and trade, is casting a shadow over its time in the sun. In March, pistachio prices rose to an eight-year high of US$4.57 (S$5.86) a pound, according to global agrifood and commodity intelligence platform Expana.

Iran is the world’s second-largest producer of the nut, accounting for a fifth of global pistachio production and a third of exports, according to the US Department of Agriculture. 

The conflict worsened an already constrained situation, a nut market analyst told Bloomberg. Supply had been curtailed by an underwhelming harvest and domestic unrest. 

It is now crunch time for Singaporean bakers and chefs, who have to pay a premium to meet growing demand. As Ms Melissa Woo, 36, founder of home-grown bakery brand Patisserie Woo has found, even Sicilian pistachios are more expensive, rising by around 15 to 30 per cent since February. 

Meanwhile, supply chain disruptions are pushing businesses such as dessert manufacturer Annabella Patisserie to transition to a higher-grade pistachio paste to maintain product quality and consistency. The move costs the company around 35 per cent more. 

Other businesses have weathered these geopolitical blows with minimal impact, thanks to strong relationships with their suppliers. However, they anticipate stronger headwinds in the near future. 

“Our supplier has been holding the pistachio prices steady for now, but has hinted at increases in the next month or so,” says The Dandy Collection group chef Raj Kumar, 44. The group runs concepts like Middle Eastern restaurant Fat Prince in Peck Seah Street, and chef Kumar is expecting at least a 10 to 15 per cent increase in prices.

Meanwhile, local chocolatier Chocoelf’s Iranian supply has come to a complete halt due to the war, and pistachios from alternative sources are 40 to 50 per cent more expensive. 

While the overall impact on its business is contained for now – Chocoelf’s bestsellers remain its kaya chocolate bars and sugar-free chocolates, which do not contain pistachios – co-founder Joe Lee, 50, says his profit margins are lower. 

“We do have concerns that in the long-term, should the war in Iran persist, we may eventually face a more serious shortage of pistachios,” he adds. 

Searching for alternative sources

There is another downside to switching sources. According to Dr Lee, pistachios from Iran have a rich, buttery taste, while Sicilian varieties are sharper in flavour and those from the US milder and sweeter. 

Chocoelf’s Dubai-style pistachio kunafa chocolate bars ($25 for 210g) are now made with a blend of US and Sicilian pistachios. Others like Ms Woo, however, have yet to find a straightforward fix. 

“Using a premium Sicilian variety means we can’t easily substitute without compromising on the taste or quality,” she says, adding that Italian pistachios taste more refined and complex than other varietals.

Neither has cheesecake brand Queic by Olivia, which sells a $24.50 Dubai chocolate cheesecake and a $38 Dubai chocolate cheesecake bar, made with pistachios which come primarily from Iran.

“We have explored a few alternative sources, but none have matched the quality and flavour profile of what we are currently using. Quality is something we are not willing to compromise on,” says head pastry chef Pablo Ruggero, 36. 

“A common issue we found is that many pistachios are roasted too heavily, which tends to flatten the flavour and make it taste more generic and heavy.” 

The Iranian pistachios he uses, on the other hand, produce a paste that retains its natural bright green colour and a delicate, almost floral aroma. “That freshness is key for us. It gives the final product a cleaner, more refined profile rather than something overly rich or one-dimensional.” 

Is Dubai Chocolate still popular?

In this precarious economic climate, can diners still stomach a $60 bar of chocolate and its equally luxe variants? The answer, it seems, is yes. 

“Demand for our Dubai-style chocolate has been fairly stable in the past three months,” says Dr Lee.

Initially, demand for Queic’s Dubai chocolate products was “exceptionally strong”, driven by the virality of the dessert, as well as the opening of the brand’s Jewel Changi Airport outlet. 

In recent weeks, sales have plateaued somewhat, says chef Ruggero, who adds that this is quite typical as trends evolve and more players enter the space. 

“That said, interest remains strong and the product continues to perform well within our overall offering.”  

Over at Bomul Gelato Bar at Chijmes, demand for its Dubai Double Black Chocolate flavour ($7 a scoop) has stabilised. “One main reason is trend saturation. Many cafes and dessert brands are now offering similar products, so consumers have become more selective.” 

Though initial hype for the chocolate bar – launched in 2022 by Dubai-based engineer Sarah Hamouda, and went viral in 2024 – may have cooled, it has found fresh purchase in 2026 by spawning the now-ubiquitous Dubai chewy cookie. 

Typically shaped like a round ball, the South Korean-originated confection combines two things Singaporeans cannot seem to get enough of: mochi and pistachio. A kataifi-pistachio paste mixture is wrapped in marshmallow dough and dusted with cocoa powder for a slightly bitter kick. 

Even The SGFR Store, the candy retailer that first brought the Can’t Get Knafeh Of It bars to Singapore, can no longer rely on its star product alone, which retails for $59 a 200g bar. Though the original remains its most popular item, it is no longer selling at the rate it was in July 2024.

“The trend today is less about a single chocolate bar, and more about the pistachio paste and kunafa flavour combination, which makes the concept unique and memorable,” says founder Mohamed Haikkel, 24. His team is now experimenting with Dubai chewy cookie flavours like chocolate mint ($8 for a 65g piece) and products such as mini Dubai chocolate cakes, which will be launched soon.

Annabella Patisserie, which retails at various stores across the island, has also expanded its range of Dubai Kunafa products to brownies, cakes, macarons and, of course, chewy cookies. Prices start at $10.90 for a box of three Dubai Kunafa macarons.

“The Dubai chocolate trend has shown stronger staying power than most viral dessert trends,” says founder Annabella Soen, 45. “Typically, trends like dalgona coffee or burnt cheesecake peak quickly and fade within three to six months. In contrast, the Dubai chocolate concept has sustained interest for over a year across multiple markets.” 

Mr Erik van Keulen, 54, owner of dessert manufacturer Oishi, makes a similar observation: It has outlasted its initial lifespan as a social media fad. 

“The Dubai chocolate trend combines several already established consumer preferences, including pistachio, premium chocolate, indulgent textures and Middle Eastern flavour influences. This has allowed the trend to expand across multiple categories such as ice cream, bakery, beverages, confectionery and cafe desserts, which is generally a sign of stronger long-term potential,” he says.

He adds that a flavour is generally considered to have meaningful staying power once demand continues to perform consistently across different channels and customer segments, even during periods of pricing pressure or softer consumer spending.  

Bakers are also surprised that it has maintained its hold over consumers for this long. “We thought that the trend was going to die out a month ago, but it spiked again due to some viral TikTok posts,” says Ms Rachel Goh, 39, who runs She Sells Seashells, a bakery in Hillview Rise that sells a 60g Dubai chewy cookie for $7.50 each.

A rising tide lifts all boats, and businesses that sell non-Dubai chocolate pistachio creations are also enjoying a boost from the nut’s unceasing popularity. Ms Woo tells The Straits Times that demand for her pistachio products has increased recently because “pistachio has been having a moment for a while now”. Her Sicilian Pistachio Tart and Dark Chocolate & Pistachio cake are among her bestsellers, retailing at $14 and $12 a serve respectively.

There is a deeper shift, she adds. “Customers are moving towards more ingredient-led desserts. Pistachio appeals as it offers a natural richness and complexity without being overly sweet. It is perceived to be more refined and sophisticated than a simple chocolate or butter cake. We foresee that as tastes evolve, demand will continue to stay healthy.” 

What makes Dubai chocolate so popular?

Dubai chocolate’s longevity may be uncommon, but its hit status is not unexpected

To Ms Soen, it has all the winning components: enough textural contrast to create a highly satisfying bite, and familiar yet novel tastes. “Chocolate is universally loved, while pistachio and kunafa add a premium, exotic element,” she says.

Not to mention visual appeal – just look at the way the chunky green filling oozes out of its chocolate case, which shatters so beautifully. This, says chef instructor and consultant Charlynn Gwee, makes it catnip for content creators. 

From ASMR videos showing off its crunchy texture to home recipes, this continuous stream of content keeps it relevant, says the 37-year-old who has conducted three fully booked Dubai chocolate workshops for The Vanilla Bean SG cooking school in Upper Serangoon, with another scheduled for later in May. It costs $238 for a four-hour class.

In chef Kumar’s view, it arrived at just the right moment. Pistachio flavours were gaining traction and coupled with the appetite for cultural novelty and luxury aesthetics, these factors fired the trend into the stratosphere. “It represents a new kind of global food culture,” he says.  

While limited stocks and rising prices have put the squeeze on Singapore businesses, they have not yet had to resort to rationing their bars – as British supermarket chain Waitrose did at the peak of Dubai Chocolate mania in early 2025.

In fact, supply limitations could further drive up the popularity of the flavour. The harder it becomes to obtain, the more desirable it gets, notes Ms Brenda Lim, 47. Her cooking school Bakefresh Studio organises Dubai chewy chocolate cookie and Dubai chocolate pudding tart classes, which cost around $245 a person for a four-hour session.

“This creates a sense of exclusivity and scarcity. Consumers start to perceive the product as more precious and premium, and worth trying before it disappears,” she says.

Beyond the bar

On one hand, veteran chocolatier Reto Marzari, 78, says that Dubai chocolate is so embedded in the market – big brands such as Lindt and Galaxy have since hopped on the bandwagon – that its presence is now unshakeable. 

But with any cultural force that grows too unwieldy, Dubai chocolate’s omnipresence might yet prove its own undoing. 

“It will die off when it becomes more common than special,” says Ms Lim. “Quality drops when more sellers come aboard too.” 

Ms Gwee cites the example of shio pan. “Once the hype phase passes, it simply becomes another item that’s widely available in bakeries, without the long queues. In general, decline is driven by factors like market oversaturation, ease of replication and loss of uniqueness. And, of course, attention shifts quickly when the next trend emerges.” 

For now though, chefs and bakers are doing what they can to prolong the shelf life of Dubai chocolate, finding new ways to reinvent it. 

Queic’s renditions – a cocoa almond sable tart filled with pistachio paste, toasted kataifi and dark chocolate cheesecake cream, as well as a dark chocolate bar with pistachio, kataifi and vanilla mascarpone cream – pay homage to its signature cheesecake. To chef Ruggero, the pairing of cheese and chocolate was a natural connection.

“Many people associate the trend primarily with pistachio and chocolate, but the original inspiration comes from kunafa, a Middle Eastern dessert traditionally paired with cheese. As a brand built around cheesecake and dairy-based desserts, there was already an interesting overlap in flavour and texture,” he says.  

In chef Kumar’s case, he wanted to twist this dessert into something engaging and interactive. The result, now on Fat Prince’s menu, is a cheese knafeh infused with rose and topped with pistachio nuts and pistachio ice cream, then drowned in hot, dark chocolate sauce ($15++).

One company sitting out this trend is Oishi, which eschews fads – even long-lasting ones – for good old classics like chocolate and strawberry. And anyway, it figures customers are already spoilt for choice. “We are not pursuing this area, as the market is saturated with suppliers offering similar products,” says Mr Van Keulen.