PM Modi gets a boost with election win in key Uttar Pradesh state

NEW DELHI - The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is set to return to power in Uttar Pradesh, India's most important state politically, further strengthening Prime Minister Narendra Modi's hold on Indian politics.

The BJP was winning in around 273 of the 403 assembly seats by Thursday evening (March 10). It previously held 312 seats.

The election in the northern state was one of five state polls held in February and early March.

The BJP is also set to return to power in the states of Uttarakhand in the north and Manipur in the north-east, and in Goa in the south.

Mr Modi, in a victory speech at the BJP headquarters in Delhi, thanked women and first-time voters for supporting the party in the four states, as BJP supporters chanted his name. "This is a vote for BJP's pro-poor and pro-active governance," he said.   

But in the northern state of Punjab, the nine-year-old Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is set to win, ousting the Congress party, a 137-year-old party. AAP was leading in about 92 out of 117 assembly seats on Thursday, in a development expected to impact national politics and shake up the opposition space.

Still, the success for the BJP - with its campaign in Uttar Pradesh centring around Mr Modi, federal schemes, nationalism, identity politics, development and distribution of subsidised food grains - also sets the tone in the run-up to the general election in two years' time, when Mr Modi will attempt a third stint in federal power.

The BJP in Uttar Pradesh successfully weathered headwinds ranging from mishandling of the pandemic in 2020, to inflation, to farmers' protest against farm laws, which were rescinded just before the elections.

The win is also a boost for the state's chief minister Yogi Adityanath, a monk who some see as a future federal leader. He is called Bulldozer Baba for cleaning up law and order in the state.

Regional outfit Samajwadi Party, the closet challenger in Uttar Pradesh, was ahead with 125 seats compared to the 47 garnered in 2017, while the Congress was winning in two seats.

Uttar Pradesh is politically important because it sends 80 MPs, the largest number of any state, to Parliament and is a hub of federal politics.

Prime Minister Modi, who is from Gujarat state, has his constituency in Varanasi in Uttar Pradesh.

State elections in India have acquired increasing importance in recent years and are seen as a referendum on political parties.

National issues have also gained importance along with local issues such as caste and religion.

The rescue of Indian students from Ukraine was also featured in BJP leaders' campaign speeches in an effort to highlight the government's pro-people credentials.

The BJP, like in every state election, has centred its campaign on the popularity of Mr Modi and his development work.

"The election results are a clear morale booster for BJP and pro-incumbency trends in states where it is in power. This gives BJP a huge advantage in preparation for 2024," said Dr Sandeep Shastri, vice-chancellor of Jagran Lakecity University.

He noted that a well-oiled campaign and federal schemes combined with local delivery of services like subsidised food grains during the pandemic, and improved law and order helped the BJP in Uttar Pradesh .

Mr Pratap Bhanu Mehta, consulting editor of The Indian Express, wrote in the paper: "The results in UP (Uttar Pradesh) are a spectacular win for the BJP, consolidating its power and ideological hegemony over Indian politics. It sends a plain and simple message: Politics, in the end, is a game of competitive credibility and the BJP simply has no competition."

The biggest setback, Dr Shastri noted, was for the Congress, which lost Punjab state, amid dismal showing in other elections, further eroding its hold on power.

"The Congress is the biggest loser... They are not able to hold on to states nor challenge an incumbent."

The win of AAP in Punjab is also expected to reverberate in national politics and help AAP leader and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, the anti-corruption crusader turned politician, to carve out a larger role in national politics.

The party, crafted out of the 2011 anti-corruption movement and attracting people from all walks of life, has so far been in power only in Delhi, where its work on improving education and health facility has caught national attention.

The focus is now expected to be on whether AAP can tackle problems in Punjab ranging from unemployment to the drug problem, to issues related to agriculture.

Expectations are also high that pollution will be tackled in the state, where stubble burning is seen as a factor for pollution spikes during winter months.

"We will make a new India where one person will love another. There will be no place for hatred. We will make an India where there is no hunger... and there is no corruption," said Mr Kejriwal, making an immediate pitch for national politics in a victory speech.

"And we will make an India where children will not have to travel to Ukraine for medical studies."