India embraces Myanmar junta to deepen trade and security ties, and counter China

KOLKATA/BANGKOK – India’s red-carpet welcome for Myanmar President Min Aung Hlaing signals New Delhi’s desire to engage more closely with the military regime in Naypyitaw to protect its strategic interests and counter Chinese influence in the neighbouring country.

Min Aung Hlaing is in India on a five-day visit until June 3, during which several critical issues will be discussed, including ways to deepen trade in rare earth minerals and other commodities, as well as enhance security cooperation along their border.

The President is being accompanied by five Cabinet ministers and several other senior officials on his first visit to India since he was sworn in as president in April following an election widely criticised as a “sham”.

This is also his first visit abroad since he transitioned from being the military junta chief to a civilian president. He last visited India in 2019 in his former capacity as the commander-in-chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces. Min Aung Hlaing became Myanmar’s military ruler following a coup in February 2021.

India’s policy towards Myanmar has traditionally been a complex balancing act between promoting democratic values and its strategic geopolitical necessities.

“But given the current geostrategic environment, one can say that India today is giving its interests more weightage than values and is, therefore, willing to scale up its engagement with the military more boldly,” said K. Yhome, a senior fellow at Asian Confluence, a think-tank based in Shillong.

India shares a 1,643km-long land border with Myanmar, which has deep implications for India’s internal security. Its eastern neighbour has long been a base for rebel groups that carry out attacks in India’s north-east, including in Manipur state more recently – a concern that was raised by India with Min Aung Hlaing.

“I think one of the imperatives that has driven India to engage and invite the President of Myanmar at this point in time is to deal with all that’s happening in the border areas,” Yhome told The Straits Times, referring to attacks in Indian territory by Myanmar-based rebels.

While India is concerned with insurgent groups operating out of Myanmar, Naypyitaw too is worried about armed resistance groups operating close to the border with India.

According to the India-Myanmar Joint Statement issued on June 1, both sides underscored the importance of preventing the misuse of sovereign territory for activities inimical to their security interests. Min Aung Hlaing even reiterated “Myanmar’s assurance that its territory would not be permitted to be used against India’s security interests”.

But Yhome noted this is not the first time Myanmar has taken such a position and that one would have to wait and see how the junta acts on this commitment.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi also conveyed to the Myanmar leader that India “as a steadfast and trusted partner of Myanmar, remained committed to deepening security cooperation between the two countries”, according to the joint statement. 

Deepening cooperation in critical minerals

Rare earth minerals have emerged as another important portfolio in the bilateral relationship. The two countries have agreed to cooperate on critical minerals, including rare earths, signalling India’s growing international outreach to secure supplies of these strategic commodities.

Myanmar hosts some of the world’s most significant reserves of ionic clay containing dysprosium and terbium. These are rare earth elements essential for a range of modern-day uses, including electric vehicles, advanced robotics, wind turbines and defence systems.

“Historically, most of this production has flowed almost exclusively into China. If India can secure even a portion of future supply, it would represent a significant geopolitical shift,” noted a June 1 post on Rare Earth Exchanges, a US-based strategic platform that provides insights into the rare earth and critical minerals supply chain.

The visit has also come as a shot in the arm for Min Aung Hlaing and his government, which has been trying to boost diplomatic engagement across the region as a way to polish its international credibility after coming to power in the 2021 coup.

Countering China’s influence

Between February 2021 and being elected president, Min Aung Hlaing travelled to Russia and China. Choosing India, a major democratic power and an influential Global South country, as the first overseas destination in his new tenure also allows the junta to counter its overreliance on China.

Scot Marciel, a former US ambassador to Myanmar, believes Min Aung Hlaing’s India visit, during which he also visited the important Buddhist pilgrimage site of Bodh Gaya, is certainly a win. Myanmar is a Buddhist-majority country.

“The key benefit for Min Aung Hlaing and the new government was a certain amount of ‘legitimacy’ that comes from being welcomed by India,” Marciel told ST.

India and Myanmar have pledged to boost their annual bilateral trade, which currently stands at slightly over US$2 billion (S$2.6 billion), including through the rupee-kyat settlement mechanism launched in May 2024.

Min Aung Hlaing’s visit comes more than six years after the last one by a Myanmar president – when Win Myint came to India in February 2020.

“For the past six years, there was zero bilateral contact at the highest political level. Now that dry spell has been broken... This alone per se is a forward movement,” Rajiv Bhatia, a former Indian ambassador to Myanmar, told ST.

He added that the outcomes of the Min Aung Hlaing visit, during which he was also accompanied by a wide-ranging business delegation, reflects a “genuine agreement between both sides to strengthen Myanmar-India relations in various fields”.

However, the visit has also raised concerns from pro-democratic forces. Zin Mar Aung, the foreign minister of the National Unity Government, which was formed by lawmakers, officials and ethnic representatives ousted during the 2021 coup, wrote a letter to Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar on May 28, urging India to “weigh carefully the broader implications of formal engagement that may normalise or legitimise military rule in Myanmar”.

Vikram Misri, India’s Foreign Secretary, told a press briefing on June 1 that India’s engagement with Myanmar “is not intended to be a commentary on the internal political arrangements in that country”.

According to Misri, Modi raised “issues related to democracy” with Min Aung Hlaing during this visit. India has also consistently called for a sustained dialogue among all stakeholders, in order to arrive at a “Myanmar-led solution and a Myanmar-owned solution” to the prolonged crisis in the country.

“History has shown that disengagement doesn’t give us any results that are better than engagement, and it certainly doesn’t produce democratic change if that is what we are interested in,” Misri noted.

“On the other hand, disengagement only produces a vacuum that others go on to fill then to our detriment and those others have no interest in democracy,” he added, in a veiled reference to China.

India, however, should also reach out to the pro-democracy forces following the Myanmar President’s visit, noted Bhatia, who is also a distinguished fellow at Gateway House, a think-tank in Mumbai.

“New Delhi should open its channels, and if the pro-democracy forces want to come and present their views, we should be open to that,” he said.

Bhatia added that India’s Myanmar policy rests on two pillars – continuous cooperation with the government of the day, and encouraging and supporting the cause of democracy. “That is something we must keep in mind all the time.”

India’s greater engagement with the junta comes at a time when Myanmar’s leaders continue to be banned from participating in ASEAN’s high-level meetings since the 2021 coup, which ousted the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi.

ASEAN’s peace plan, known as the Five-Point Consensus, calls for an end to violence and the passage of humanitarian aid, among other conditions, but there has been little progress since it was adopted in April 2021.

“ASEAN alone, whether it likes it or not, has been unable to push forward its agenda,” said Yhome, noting that the lack of progress on its Five-Point Consensus plan had undermined its role and allowed other countries, such as China and Russia, to deepen their influence over Myanmar.

“If ASEAN were to look at ways to counter such a possibility, democratic countries such as India, Japan, South Korea and Australia could provide that counter,” he added.

Marciel said that Min Aung Hlaing’s visit to India may steer others, especially ASEAN member states, into re-engaging with Myanmar. “The visit to India might accelerate that process, but probably not by too much,” added Marciel.

“More likely, the argument for engagement is to gain some modest influence and, more importantly, ensure that the new government is not too dependent on China.”