After China, India is next on Canada’s foreign policy reset agenda

NEW DELHI – After recalibrating ties with China, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is setting his sights on another Asian giant, India, as Ottawa moves to deepen engagement with key regional powers amid a shifting geopolitical landscape.

He will visit India from Feb 26 as part of a three-nation tour that also includes Australia and Japan.

The India trip comes just weeks after Ottawa hosted Indian National Security Adviser Ajit Doval in early February. During that visit, India and Canada agreed on a “shared work plan” to guide bilateral cooperation on national security and law enforcement.

This signals their shared interest in managing sensitive issues – particularly the Khalistan separatist movement – through formal security channels, preventing any single incident from derailing the broader relationship.

Both sides will also facilitate communication on the “illegal flow of drugs, particularly fentanyl precursors and transnational organised criminal networks”, according to India’s Ministry of External Affairs.

Bilateral ties had previously soured after Ottawa accused New Delhi of complicity in

the 2023 killing of a Canadian Sikh separatist just outside Vancouver.

Since taking office in March 2025, Mr Carney has been pursuing a policy of rapprochement as middle powers, including Canada, seek to strengthen ties with one another and

recalibrate their relationships with China

to reduce dependence on the US in the wake of trade tensions under the Trump administration.

Mr Carney was in Beijing in January, marking the first visit to China by a Canadian leader in almost nine years. The last Canadian leader to visit India was then Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who was there in 2023 for the Group of 20 summit, at a time when bilateral ties were deteriorating.

“There is an element of broader geopolitical recalibration in the India-Canada reset,” said Professor Harsh V. Pant, vice-president of studies and foreign policy at the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi.

He noted that “a sense of pragmatism has been ushered in Canada’s approach towards India”.

He added: “They have tried to recalibrate their own relationship and move away from recriminations of the past.”

Bilateral trade between the two countries saw a 10 per cent growth in 2024 from a year earlier to reach US$23.66 billion (S$30 billion). In 2024, more than 1.4 million people of Indian origin resided in Canada, while about 427,000 Indian students were studying in the country.

While New Delhi and Ottawa hope to kick-start talks on a free trade agreement, they are said to be close to inking a multibillion-dollar deal for Canada, the world’s second-largest uranium producer, to supply India with the critical mineral to power its fast-growing economy.

“This (upcoming) visit aims to accelerate trade talks, targeting US$50 billion by 2030. It signals deeper defence, space and investment cooperation,” said Mr Anil Wadhwa, a retired Indian diplomat.

“Most importantly, both Canada and India have agreed (during Mr Doval’s visit) to prioritise security over anything else and to consult each other first in case of differences and try and resolve them – a distinct change from (the) Trudeau (administration).”

The Khalistan issue

The gang-style execution of separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar outside a Sikh temple in British Columbia in June 2023 triggered a diplomatic crisis. Mr Trudeau accused Indian officials of involvement in the killing and targeting supporters of the pro-Khalistan movement, which seeks a separate homeland for Sikhs in India.

India dismissed the allegations as baseless, resulting in a meltdown in ties as both sides reciprocally expelled top diplomats and downgraded relations. But in August 2025, ties were restored, and high commissioners were reinstated.

The fallout demonstrated how quickly a single security issue could unravel the entire relationship, a scenario that both sides are now seeking to avoid by managing differences carefully, especially at a time of geopolitical uncertainty.

The demand for a separate state for Sikhs, carved out of the northern state of Punjab, has long been a thorn in ties between India and Canada. India considers the Khalistan movement, which triggered a violent insurgency in Punjab in the 1980s, and its affiliated outfits to be terrorist organisations.

Remnants of the network remain embedded in the Indian diaspora in countries such as Canada and Britain. India has repeatedly accused Canada of allowing pro-Khalistan activism – ranging from meetings and rallies to referendums among the Sikh populace seeking support for a Sikh homeland – under the guise of free speech.

Canada has maintained that such activities fall under civil liberties, even as India has argued that they pose a direct threat to its national security.

Analysts said the latest “shared work plan” signals that both sides want to manage security issues, including the contentious question of Sikh separatism, through formal law enforcement channels, creating a guard rail against another diplomatic derailment.

“The decision to enhance security cooperation is a significant development,” said Ms Vina Nadjibulla, vice-president for research and strategy at the Asia-Pacific Foundation of Canada.

“I wouldn’t say the Khalistan issue has been pushed to the backdrop; rather, it is being addressed through the appropriate security and law-enforcement channels so it does not dominate the entire relationship,” she added.

“The visit to India, Australia and Japan is an opportunity to take his Davos message of middle power diplomacy to the Indo-Pacific. Carney’s visit to India this week will consolidate, elevate and expand the relationship.”

The visit will cover the full spectrum of engagement, with a focus on negotiations for a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, as well as cooperation in energy, technology, artificial intelligence, investment, defence and people-to-people ties.

“This is a full-spectrum reset in the relationship and a big change from just a year ago,” Ms Nadjibulla said. “There is a lot of momentum and political will... This visit is a testament to that and the desire of both sides to rebuild ties after a difficult period.”