Myanmar remains ASEAN’s elephant in the room

CEBU - Even if the energy crisis looks set to dominate discussions at 2026’s ASEAN Summit, one question, sometimes discussed in hushed tones, looms: whether, or even when, the regional grouping should bring Myanmar back to the table.

To be sure, ASEAN’s position on Myanmar is unlikely to change when the meetings conclude on May 8, with leaders expected to reiterate their support for a five-year-old peace plan drafted shortly after a violent military coup in 2021.

This is even as South-east Asian foreign ministers have agreed to a virtual meeting with their Myanmar counterpart, ASEAN secretary-general Kao Kim Hourn told Reuters on May 7.

Some observers told The Straits Times that they are worried this signals that a gradual acceptance of Myanmar may be a matter of time, particularly given growing ambivalence within ASEAN – unthinkable as that may be for Myanmar pro-democracy activists who are banking on the Philippines, ASEAN’s current chair, to take a harder stance against the military regime.

Ms Khin Ohmar, a Myanmar human rights activist and founder of civil society network Progressive Voice, told ST that activists are hoping the Philippines can build on the work of the previous chair Malaysia, which had taken a more hardline approach than Manila so far, to first ensure that humanitarian aid reaches those on the ground and second, to not recognise the junta.

Myanmar’s military leaders have been banned from participating in ASEAN’s high-level meetings since right after the coup in February 2021. ASEAN’s peace plan, known as the Five-Point Consensus (5PC), calls for an end to violence and the passage of humanitarian aid, among other conditions, but there has been little progress since.

More recently, the military government held a “general election” that paved the way for junta chief Min Aung Hlaing to be elected president in April.

A week before the ASEAN meetings in picturesque Cebu, the Myanmar military said detained former state counsellor and de facto leader Aung San Suu Kyi has been moved to house arrest, even as her supporters have called for a “proof of life”.

For states that favour keeping to the 5PC in engagement with Myanmar, including Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and Timor Leste, these moves do not achieve the conditions spelt out by the 5PC, especially since there has been no substantive change to the state of civil war in the country.

Yet, for others that are already leaning towards a softer approach, the military government’s recent moves may be seen as enough to sway the ASEAN members.

“What they’re (Myanmar government) trying to do is to assist those who want to bring Myanmar back fully into the ASEAN fold, like Thailand,” said Mr Barry Desker, distinguished fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. He added, however, that he does not believe it would be enough for a decision to be made at this summit.

In recent months, Thailand, which shares a 2,416km border with Myanmar, has been the most vocal in leading efforts to re-engage Myanmar; Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam have sent similar signals. The stakes are understandably higher for “front-line” states like Thailand, and pragmatism and a desire for border security likely drive their thinking.

But Ms Debbie Stothard, founder of human rights group ALTSEAN-Burma, said she has found Thailand’s position baffling and “at odds with its national interest”, given that there have been “incursions into Thai airspace by Myanmar fighter jets and military drones” in the last five years.

Recently, Myanmar has also emerged as a hot spot for scam centres – a development that observers believe underscores the urgency for ASEAN to resolve its impasse over what to do.

Ms Khin Ohmar recognises that the Philippines’ task will be “more challenging” than Malaysia’s, given that the junta has “rebranded” itself into a nominally civilian government.

There is also a fear that the Myanmar issue may be put on the back burner. While there had been much focus on Myanmar early in the Philippines’ chairmanship, which began in January, the momentum appears to have slowed after the ongoing energy crisis arguably overshadowed most other issues on the grouping’s agenda.

If a resolution is not reached in 2026, the Myanmar issue may fall to Singapore when it takes over the rotating chairmanship in 2027.

For ASEAN, which espouses a non-interference policy, the decision to keep the status quo or recognise the military government, which activists say is still carrying out violence against civilians, is a choice between two undesirable alternatives.

Analysts have suggested two other possible options: Impose punitive measures on Myanmar for not complying with the 5PC or empower ASEAN’s Special Envoy to Myanmar to engage the junta on measures towards national reconciliation.

But they believe these are unlikely to be taken up, given how things have unfolded. For one thing, given the split among members, it would be challenging for ASEAN to arrive at a consensus to “stand up” to the junta.

In that sense, keeping the status quo is likely to be the more palatable option for now, especially when there are more pressing matters to deal with.

Yet, delaying any resolution would not only undermine ASEAN’s credibility by signalling that a division remains, but it would also narrow the grouping’s options.

The question is whether ASEAN has – and can eventually agree on – an “endgame”, even as it pushes for the 5PC.

Said Ms Khin Ohmar: “I am worried that they don’t give attention to Myanmar as they should and go for a quick-fix solution and fall into the junta’s trap.”