KUALA LUMPUR (BLOOMBERG) - Malaysia's government will face its biggest test of support since its turbulent rise to power in February when Parliament fully convenes for the first time on Monday (July 13).
Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin will start the sitting by seeking to remove the Speaker Mohamad Ariff Md Yusof, who was appointed by the previous Pakatan Harapan administration.
An earlier session in May only hosted a speech by the King due to concern over the coronavirus pandemic.
A win by Tan Sri Muhyiddin would put to rest doubts over how much support he commands among lawmakers - a question that has lingered since the King named him as premier to end the political turmoil set off by the abrupt resignation of Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad.
It would also be a setback for the opposition side's plan to launch a no-confidence motion against Mr Muhyiddin, even as they struggle to agree on who to back as prime minister.
"If the removal motions are passed, it would indeed signify that Muhyiddin has a working parliamentary majority, albeit a thin one, and the purported motion of no confidence would be rendered moot," said Oh Ei Sun, senior fellow of Singapore Institute of International Affairs.
Malaysia's volatile politics has been a sore spot for investors and credit rating companies alike.
The government's questionable longevity has raised concerns over its fiscal policy, with Fitch Ratings and S&P Global Ratings recently downgrading their outlook on the country's debt to negative.
The government needs a comfortable parliamentary majority to push through key laws, such as the Temporary Measures Bill to counter the effects of the coronavirus pandemic and the 2021 budget in November.
Parliament approval is also required to breach the 55 per cent of GDP statutory limit on government debt, which now stands at 52 per cent as the country puts in motion RM295 billion (S$96 billion) of stimulus measures to weather the economic downturn.
Mr Muhyiddin looks set for a victory, even if it's a small one.
The opposition remains divided, mainly over their candidate for prime minister.
The Pakatan Harapan alliance has settled on Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim despite acknowledging he lacks enough lawmaker support, while his long-time rival and former premier Mahathir and allies commit to backing Mr Shafie Apdal, who would be the first prime ministerial candidate from East Malaysia.
Winning the speaker vote would give Mr Muhyiddin a "more controlled Parliament, making the case that a parliamentary Speaker who defies the sitting prime minister won't be tolerated", said political scientist Wong Chin Huat.
It could also see Dr Mahathir's no-confidence motion "buried at the bottom of the agenda and effectively killed".
The opposition isn't the only risk to the current government.
Malaysia's longest-ruling coalition Barisan Nasional has stepped up calls for snap polls, with a party leader saying it plans to defend all its traditional seats, which could pit it against Mr Muhyiddin's support base among ethnic Malays and the rural population.
BN's massive victory at a recent by-election could give it room to demand a bigger role in the administration.
As Malaysia follows the Westminster Parliament tradition, losing a vote of no-confidence would force Mr Muhyiddin to resign.
On the other hand, losing the Speaker vote would require no such thing.
Still, the loss may strengthen calls for Mr Muhyiddin to either table his own motion of confidence, resign or call for a snap election to resolve the impasse.
"If Muhyiddin is confident of his majority, he should table his own motion of confidence, which will legitimise his power if passed," Mr Wong said.