WASHINGTON (AP) - As world leaders gather in Spain to discuss how to slow the warming of the planet, a spotlight falls on China - the top emitter of greenhouse gases.
China burns about half the coal used globally each year. Between 2000 and 2018, its annual carbon emissions nearly tripled, and it now accounts for about 30 per cent of the world's total. Yet it's also the leading market for solar panels, wind turbines and electric vehicles, and it manufactures about two-thirds of solar cells installed worldwide.
"We are witnessing many contradictions in China's energy development," said Mr Kevin Tu, a Beijing-based fellow with the Centre on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University. "It's the largest coal market and the largest clean energy market in the world."
That apparent paradox is possible because of the sheer scale of China's energy demands.
But as China's economy slows to the lowest level in a quarter century - around 6 per cent growth, according to government statistics - policymakers are doubling down on support for coal and other heavy industries, the traditional backbones of China's energy system and economy. At the same time, the country is reducing subsidies for renewable energy.
At the annual United Nations climate summit, this year in Madrid, government representatives will put the finishing touches on implementing the 2015 Paris Agreement, which set a goal to limit future warming to 1.5 to 2 deg C above pre-industrial levels. Nations may decide for themselves how to achieve it.
China had previously committed to shifting its energy mix to 20 per cent renewables, including nuclear and hydroelectric energy. Climate experts generally agree that the initial targets pledged in Paris will not be enough to reach the goal, and next year nations are required to articulate more ambitious targets.
Hopes that China would offer to do much more are fading.
Recent media reports and satellite images suggest that China is building or planning to complete new coal power plants with total capacity of 148 gigawatts - nearly equal to the entire coal-power capacity of the European Union within the next few years, according to an analysis by Global Energy Monitor, a San Francisco-based nonprofit.
Meanwhile, investment in China's renewable energy dropped almost 40 per cent in the first half of 2019 compared with the same period last year, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance, a research organisation. The government slashed subsidies for solar energy.
Last week in Beijing, China's vice-minister of ecology and environment told reporters that non-fossil fuel sources already account for 14.3 per cent of the country's energy mix. He did not indicate that China would embrace more stringent targets soon.
"We are still faced with challenges of developing our economy, improving people's livelihood," Mr Zhao Yingmin said.
As a fast-growing economy, it was always inevitable that China's energy demands would climb steeply. The only question was whether the country could power a sufficiently large portion of its economy with renewables to curb emissions growth.
Many observers took hope from a brief dip in China's carbon emissions between 2014 and 2016. Today, the country's renewed focus on coal comes as a disappointment.
"Now there's a sense that rather than being a leader, China is the one that is out of step," said Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air in Helsinki. He notes that several developed countries - including Germany, South Korea and the United States - are rapidly reducing their reliance on coal power.
After climbing sharply for two decades, China's emissions stalled around 2013 and then declined slightly in 2015 and 2016, according to Global Carbon Budget, which tracks emissions worldwide. This dip came as Chinese leaders declared a "war on pollution" and suspended the construction of dozens of planned coal power plants, including some in Shanxi.
At the same time, the government required many existing coal operators to install new equipment in smokestacks to remove sulphur dioxide, nitrous oxide and other hazardous substances. About 80 per cent of coal plants now have scrubbers, said Alvin Lin, Beijing-based China climate and energy policy director for the Natural Resources Defence Council, a nonprofit.
As a result, the air quality in many Chinese cities, including Beijing, improved significantly between 2013 and 2017. Residents long accustomed to wearing face masks and running home air-filter machines enjoyed a reprieve of more "blue sky days," as low-pollution days are known in China.
In the past three years, China's carbon emissions have begun to rise again, according to Global Carbon Budget.
The coming winter in Beijing may see a return of prolonged smog, as authorities loosen environmental controls on heavy industry - in part to compensate for other slowing sectors in the economy.
Permits for new coal plants proliferated after regulatory authority was briefly devolved from Beijing to provincial governments, which see construction projects and coal operations as boosts to local economies and tax bases, said Ted Nace, executive director of Global Energy Monitor.
"It's as though a boa constructor swallowed a giraffe, and now we're watching that bulge move through the system," said Nace. In China, it takes about three years to build a coal plant.
The world has already warmed by 1 deg C. All scenarios envisioned by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for holding planetary warming to around 1.5 deg C involve steep worldwide reductions in coal-power generation.
In that effort, other countries rely on Chinese manufacturing to hold down prices on solar panels, wind turbines and lithium-ion batteries.
"China has a really mixed record. On the one hand, it's seen rapidly rising emissions over the past two decades," said Jonas Nahm, an energy expert at Johns Hopkins University. "On the other hand, it's shown it's able to innovate around manufacturing - and make new energy technologies available at scale, faster and cheaper."