We live in surprising times.

Many short-term shocks continue to surprise us: the Covid-19 pandemic, the Ukraine war and the latest Hamas attack. Yet, what makes our world truly hard to understand and grasp in totality is that we are also experiencing simultaneously many long-term structural shifts: the rise of China and India, the broader return of Asia, the relative decline of the West and, equally importantly, the resurgence of the Global South. It is these long-term structural shifts, not the short-term shocks, which will shape our future.